After their wins last night in the Final Four, Kentucky (29-10 SU, 21-14-2 ATS) will face Connecticut (31-8 SU, 21-14-2 ATS) for the national championship. Kentucky opened as a 2.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and thus far public betting has been incredibly even with 52% of spread bets taking John Calipari’s Wildcats. Although most of the sports betting marketplace has kept their line stagnant as -2.5, Pinnacle has adjusted their line to -3.
Although most of the market still has Kentucky as a 2.5-point favorite, we currently have a line prediction which indicates that the next line movement will move the Wildcats to -3. This makes a lot of sense when you consider that Pinnacle takes some of the highest stakes of any offshore sportsbook and is widely considered to be a market-setting book.
While the split opinion on the spread has led to limited line movement, there has been some interesting movement on the total. After opening at 133, 72% of public bets have taken the over which has pushed the total two points to 135. While this adjustment seems largely due to public perception, its worth noting that the Diamond steam move (192-133, +41.55 units) was triggered on “Over 134”.
The line graph below displays the public betting percentages from our seven contributing sportsbooks and the line movement on the total since opening at Pinnacle Sunday morning at 12:32 AM eastern.
Interestingly, Connecticut has built a reputation for their suffocating pressure defense and have actually been one of the best under teams in the country this season (24-13). In fact, UConn finished the season ranked 36th in the country in points allowed/game and 8th overall in blocked shots/game.
The following table, which is available to all Sportsbook Insider customers on their “Matchups” page, shows which team holds the edge in various statistical categories.
We will continue to update this information as more bets pour in, so make sure to visit our blog prior to Monday night’s tip-off.
Looking for the latest real-time odds and public betting percentages? Make sure to check out March Madness Central for all of your National Championship needs, and try our 4-day Pro trial to receive any picks and bet signals for this game.
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