2012-13 NBA and Betting Against the Public

With the 2012-13 NBA season underway, we decided to fire up our Bet Labs software and update our analysis on the optimum levels for Betting Against the Public in the NBA.

Bet Labs’ archived NBA data includes closing lines from Pinnacle and NBA Betting Trends since the start of the 2006 season.

As noted in previous articles, a betting system using NBA betting percentages alone is not enough to be profitable.

As you can see below, contrarian NBA betting isn’t enough to crack the 52.4% ATS win rate needed to break even.

Table 1: NBA and Betting Against the Public

Betting Percentage ATS Record ATS Win Percentage
40% 2227-2187 50.5%
35% 1551-1531 50.3%
30% 961-940 50.6%

However, by focusing only on visitors, we see a significant jump in ATS win percentage when betting against the public.

Table 1: NBA Visitors and Betting Against the Public

Betting Percentage ATS Record ATS Win Percentage
40% 931-864 51.9%
35% 566-497 53.2%
30% 258-218 54.2%

Starting at the 35% betting percentage level, visitors become profitable and improve even further when filtering down to the 30% level.

We’ve also noticed that adding specific point-spread filters in Bet Labs improves results even more.

If you’re interested in doing this analysis or creating other data-driven NBA betting systems, we invite you request a free live demo of our Bet Labs software.

2 comments on “2012-13 NBA and Betting Against the Public
    • We combine the betting against the public strategies in this article with line movement and profitable historical trends to determine which plays will make our Best Bets and Square Plays.

      When it comes to contrarian betting, we always look to fade the team who is getting an overwhelming amount of public bets.

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