MLB MVP Races Becoming Tighter as We Head Down the Stretch
With less than two months remaining in the season, both the AL and NL MVP races are down to just a few players each.
American League MVP
Just a few weeks ago, Aaron Judge was the king of the world, just like Leo was before he froze to death in Titanic. While Judge probably won’t be hanging on to any floating doors in the Atlantic anytime soon, he has been pretty bad since the all-star break. In 22 games, he has hit .182 with a .710 OPS which is a bit different than the .329 and 1.139 he recorded in the first half. He still has a decent chance considering his 6.0 fWAR is tops in the league, but he needs to hope that Rogers Hornsby Jr. down in Houston slows down.
Jose Altuve spent the month of July putting up video game numbers. His .485 average and 1.251 OPS over that span helped him move from +500 to -225 in just a few weeks. With Carlos Correa and George Springer both hurt at the moment, Altuve needs to continue carrying the team’s offense on his back. If Judge can’t turn things around, it would be hard seeing anyone besides Altuve winning.
National League MVP
While the AL race is essentially down to two players, the National League has three reasonable candidates remaining according to the oddsmakers. For those believers in advanced stats, Anthony Rendon has been the best player in the National league up until this point, with his 5.3 fWAR leading slightly over Paul Goldschmidt’s 5.2 and Bryce Harper’s 5.0. However, Harper is the man to beat on the Nationals considering his star status and offensive numbers. I doubt many voters would give the nod to Rendon over Harper if the stats play out the way they currently look.
Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are both in similar situations. Both play for overachieving teams in the stacked NL West and both are having great seasons. Arenado does better in the field, while Goldschmidt does better at the plate, thanks in large part to his substantially higher walk percentage.
The odds aren’t giving credit to any of the Dodgers players for some reason. Corey Seager, whose 4.9 fWAR puts him right behind the league leaders, but he’s only given 33/1 odds. While the Dodgers terrific season may be seen as more of a group effort, Harper has had a ton of help in Washington, and the D-Backs and Rockies have had great contributions from players like Jake Lamb and Charlie Blackmon. It may look like he’s out of the running, but don’t count Seager out yet.
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