Stroke of Luck: Indy Wins and Sportsbooks Profit

In just the fourth game of his NFL career, Andrew Luck showed fans why he was considered the best draft prospect since the legendary John Elway. On Sunday, the Stanford product threw for 362 yards and two touchdowns while adding another score on the ground in a shocking 30-27 upset of the Packers.

While most sports bettors were likely cursing this unlikely upset, sportsbooks were most assuredly elated with this outcome. According to our betting trends data, Green Bay closed as 6.5-point favorites at Pinnacle and received a whopping 79% of spread bets (not to mention 81% of moneyline wagers). The win for Indianapolis pushed them to 2-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, but more importantly, it once again highlighted the value of betting against the public.

Two weeks ago we highlighted the value of betting against popular public teams and those trends have continued to benefit contrarian bettors. This season, underdogs receiving less than 30% of spread bets have gone 20-10 for +9.29 units earned and a lucrative 31% return on investment (ROI).

The table below shows the five teams that received less than 30% of spread bets in Week 5 and how well they performed against the spread.

Team Spread Spread Betting % ATS Result
Indianapolis Colts +6.5 21% Win
Miami Dolphins +3 29% Win
Kansas City Chiefs +6 26% Win
Jacksonville Jaguars +6 21% Loss
Buffalo Bills +10 29% Loss

* Pinnacle’s closing lines were used to determine ATS records.
** Spread Betting Percentages (%) represent Sports Insights’ NFL Betting Trends data.

In tonight’s Monday Night football game between the Jets and Texans, New York is currently receiving just 22% of spread bets as an 8-point home dog. We will continue to monitor this game but, based on this trend; it would appear there is some value on the Jets.

We always encourage selling on good news and buying on bad and with both Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes out for the season; the Jets stock may never be lower.

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