2014-15 NBA Win Totals

The NBA season doesn’t tip-off until October 28th when the San Antonio Spurs host the Dallas Mavericks, but oddsmakers have already begun posting a number of prop bets and futures for the upcoming season. Earlier today we posted 2014-15 NBA MVP odds and we’ve been updating the movement of the futures market throughout the off-season, but season win totals always represent an interesting opportunity for bettors.

Following Wednesday’s release of the 2014-15 NBA schedule, the sportsbook Bwin posted their win total projections for all 30 teams. To nobody’s surprise, the San Antonio Spurs and the new-look Cleveland Cavaliers opened with the highest win total (tied at 57.5). However, these win totals did not match up identically with the futures at some of the sharper offshore sportsbooks.

While there was generally consensus regarding the league’s top teams, there were some discrepancies. For example, the Houston Rockets season win total (48.5) was lower than the Memphis Grizzlies (50.5) despite the fact that the Rockets odds of winning the NBA Championship (+1300) are far greater than the Grizzlies (+5000).

Considering that both of these teams are members of the Western Conference and will play a similar strength of schedule, this is truly perplexing. I would imagine these odds will be updated shortly, but in the meantime betting under 50.5 wins for the Grizzlies seems like a solid bet.

The table below displays the current win totals at Bwin alongside the current futures at 5Dimes. We will continue to update this table as more books report.

Team
Bwin (8/15)
5Dimes (8/15)
San Antonio Spurs 57.5 +325
Cleveland Cavaliers 57.5 +425
Oklahoma City Thunder 56.5 +550
Chicago Bulls 55.5 +675
Los Angeles Clippers 55.5 +1000
Washington Wizards 50.5 +3000
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 +5000
Golden State Warriors 49.5 +2300
Dallas Mavericks 48.5 +2800
Houston Rockets 48.5 +1300
Toronto Raptors 47.5 +7000
Portland Trail Blazers 46.5 +3500
Denver Nuggets 44.5 +9500
Atlanta Hawks 44.5 +8500
Charlotte Hornets 43.5 +8000
Miami Heat 43.5 +3000
Phoenix Suns 42.5 +7500
New Orleans Pelicans 41.5 +13000
Brooklyn Nets 39.5 +5500
Indiana Pacers 38.5 +4500
New York Knicks 36.5 +7000
Detroit Pistons 36.5 +16000
Los Angeles Lakers 33.5 +8000
Boston Celtics 28.5 +10000
Orlando Magic 27.5 +24000
Sacramento Kings 26.5 +13000
Minnesota T-Wolves 25.5 +20000
Utah Jazz 22.5 +25000
Milwaukee Bucks 20.5 +30000
Philadelphia 76ers 17.5 +25000

Another interesting comparison involves the LeBron James former running crew — the Miami Heat. Although the Heat lost King James to the Cavs in the off-season, they were able to re-sign Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh while adding Luol Deng via free agency.

These moves should keep them competitive, however, their win total is just 43.5 which trails or ties fellow Eastern Conference teams like the Raptors (47.5), Hawks (44.5) and Hornets (43.5). Despite lower win totals than these teams, the Heat’s title chances (+3000) are markedly better than the Raptors (+7000), Hawks (+8500) and Hornets (+8000). With teams writing the Heat off following the loss of LeBron, it would appear that there could be some value on over 43.5 wins for Miami.

Which teams will you be betting? Do you also expect a lot of odds movement when sharper sportsbooks like CRIS and Pinnacle post win totals? Please leave your comments in the section below.

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