Over the past few days we’ve posted the 2014-15 NBA MVP odds and win totals from the offshore sportsbook Bwin. Although the limits are very low and the juice is very high, these early prop bets give us some early insight from the oddsmakers. That said, we will have a much better indication of the NBA betting market when sharper sportsbooks like 5Dimes and CRIS begin posting these odds.
Earlier this week Bwin, who has been the only offshore sportsbook posting such a wide range of NBA betting options, posted prop bets related to the 2014-15 league leader in scoring, rebounding, assists and blocks.
Still just 25 years old, Kevin Durant has already won four scoring titles (2010, 2011, 2012 and 2014) in his seven year NBA career. In fact, last season the rangy forward averaged a career-high 32.0 points per game — 4.6 ppg above his closest competitor (Carmelo Anthony) and his career average. Perhaps that explains why Durant is the overwhelming favorite to repeat as scoring champ and is listed at -200 to once again be the league’s leading scorer.
The table below displays the current odds at Bwin alongside each player’s scoring average from last season. It should be noted that the Andrew Wiggins for Kevin Love trade is not yet official, although it is expected to be completed very shortly.
|Kevin Durant||Oklahoma City Thunder||-200||32.0|
|Carmelo Anthony||New York Knicks||+190||27.4|
|LeBron James||Cleveland Cavaliers||+200||27.1|
|Russell Westbrook||Oklahoma City Thunder||+200||21.8|
|Kobe Bryant||Los Angeles Lakers||+300||13.8|
|Kevin Love||Cleveland Cavaliers*||+400||26.1|
|James Harden||Houston Rockets||+700||25.4|
|Derrick Rose||Chicago Bulls||+1000||15.9|
|Stephen Curry||Golden State Warriors||+1600||24.0|
|Andrew Wiggins||Minnesota Timberwolves*||+3000||N/A|
|Damian Lillard||Portland Trail Blazers||+3000||20.7|
|Blake Griffin||Los Angeles Clippers||+3500||24.1|
|LaMarcus Aldridge||Portland Trail Blazers||+3500||23.2|
|Kyrie Irving||Cleveland Cavaliers||+3500||20.8|
|Dwight Howard||Houston Rockets||+3500||18.3|
|Jabari Parker||Milwaukee Bucks||+5000||N/A|
|Dirk Nowitzki||Dallas Mavericks||+5000||21.7|
|Deron Williams||Brooklyn Nets||+5000||14.3|
|DeMarcus Cousins||Sacramento Kings||+5000||22.7|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Antonio Spurs||+5000||12.8|
|Goran Dragic||Phoenix Suns||+5000||20.3|
|Tony Parker||San Antonio Spurs||+5000||16.7|
|DeMar DeRozan||Toronto Raptors||+7500||22.7|
|Al Jefferson||Charlotte Hornets||+8000||21.8|
|Chris Paul||Los Angeles Clippers||+8000||19.1|
|Dwyane Wade||Miami Heat||+8000||19.0|
|Chris Bosh||Miami Heat||+8000||16.2|
|Tim Duncan||San Antonio Spurs||+8000||15.1|
|Anthony Davis||New Orleans Pelicans||+12500||20.8|
|John Wall||Washington Wizards||+15000||19.3|
It’s interesting to see two rookies listed on this list considering that 76ers guard Michael Carter-Williams led all rookies in scoring last season with just 16.7 ppg. In fact, no rookie has led the league in scoring since Elvin Hayes way back in the 1968-69 season.
As you’ll notice in this table, both #1 pick Andrew Wiggins (+3000) and #2 pick Jabari Parker (+5000) are listed as options. What’s particularly strange about this is that they’re listed ahead of former number one overall selection Anthony Davis (+12500), who actually ranked 14th in scoring last season after averaging 20.8 ppg.
Immediately following the 2014 NBA Draft two sportsbooks posted over/unders for Wiggins and Parker’s scoring output, and neither book is expecting elite production. Although Wiggins trade from Cleveland to Minnesota should lead to more opportunity, it’s tough to imagine a significant jump.
Will Andrew Wiggins average more than 17.5 points per game as a rookie? “No” is a -160 favorite | “Yes” is listed at +125 (via SIA)
— SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) June 26, 2014
Yesterday SIA listed the over/under for Andrew Wiggins rookie scoring at 17.5 points per game. Today Bovada lists his O/U at 14.5 ppg. — SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) June 27, 2014
The over/under for Jabari Parker’s rookie production has been set at 15.5 points and 7 rebounds per game. (via Bovada) — SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) June 27, 2014
While Anthony Davis seems like one interesting sleeper, Chicago’s Derrick Rose is another potentially undervalued player. LeBron James and Kevin Love both have better odds of leading the league in scoring than Rose, but there are only so many touches to go around in Cleveland. One has to imagine that Irving, Love and James will all see a slight reduction in scoring this season.
Meanwhile, all reports from the Team USA coaching staff are that Rose is fully healed and has returned to his MVP-form. Prior to his knee injury in 2011, Rose averaged 25.0 ppg which would have been good for sixth last season.
Another intriguing option is Miami’s Dwyane Wade. With LeBron James back in Cleveland, Wade will once again be asked to should much of the scoring load. And while public sentiment following the NBA Finals seemed to be the Wade is over the hill, his numbers tell a much different story.
The 32-year old Wade may have tired down late in the postseason, but the 2013-14 season may have been the most efficient of D-Wade’s career. In 54 games, Wade averaged 19.0 points on a career-high 54.5% shooting in just 32.9 minute/game. In fact his average of 20.8 points per 36 minutes is not far off from Carmelo Anthony’s 25.5 points per 36. With James gone, Wade will be the focal point of the Heat offense and I would not be surprised to see his playing time and scoring raise considerably.
This would not be Wade’s first scoring title as the 6’4″ guard actually won the scoring crown when he averaged just over 30 ppg during the 2008-09 season. The table below displays the past eight scoring champs along with their pre-season odds to be the league’s leading scorer. (Odds via SportsOddsHistory.com)
Points Per Game
Who do you think will be next season’s scoring champ? Can anybody supplant Kevin Durant? Will Kobe Bryant return to form after missing most of the 2013-14 season? Make sure to leave any comments or questions in the section below.