Last week in this space, we looked back through our historical database and determined the best stadiums for betting unders. Today, we will examine the most hitter friendly ballparks by looking at which stadiums have been the most profitable for betting overs since the 2005 season.
The table below, using line data from Pinnacle, displays the five most profitable overs ballparks.
|Great American Ball Park||Cincinnati Reds||300-257||33.60||6.0%|
|Fenway Park||Boston Red Sox||313-268||30.50||5.2%|
|Miller Park||Milwaukee Brewers||306-268||29.60||5.2%|
|Dodger Stadium||Los Angeles Dodgers||303-272||19.25||3.4%|
|Coors Field||Colorado Rockies||306-276||15.70||2.7%|
While these five parks were the most profitable based on units earned according to our BetLabs software, the top park based on return on investment (ROI) is actually a brand new stadium. Marlins Ballpark, which opened prior to the 2012 season, has already seen the over hit in 19 of 26 games — good for 11.5 units earned and a 44.2% ROI. Obviously this is a new stadium and oddsmakers are still adjusting , but the success of overs has been a surprise to many baseball insiders and analysts.
With such spacious dimensions (344′ down the line in right, around 390′ to the power alleys, and 418′ to center — not to mention 420′ to the “Bermuda Triangle” in left-center), it was expected that this new stadium would be very advantageous to pitchers. Instead, it ranks third on ESPN’s Park Factors behind the aforementioned Coors Field and Chicago’s U.S. Cellular Field.
However, the one ballpark listed that seems to defy logic is Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. With the 24th ranked Park Factor, cavernous dimensions, and a solid pitching staff led by 2011 Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw, you would expect that this stadium would rank amongst the most pitcher friendly parks in the game.
My first thought was that Dodger Stadium’s reputation would cause bettors to pound the under and create value on the over, but does not appear to be the case. Of the 575 games in our database, there have been just 85 games in which the minority of public bets (less than 49%) has bet the over — or 14.78% of games. In these games, the over has performed at an astounding rate recording a 51-34 record with 15.71 units earned and an 18.5% ROI. In the other 490 games, the over has been far less lucrative with a 252-238 record and just 3.54 units earned.
As for the best overs ballpark? This may be another stadium which could shock baseball fans. Great American Ball Park — home of the Cincinnati Reds since 2003 — has seen 53.9% of their overs hit including 13 of 24 games this season. However, according to ESPN’s Park Factor, Great American Ball Park is just the 12th most hitter friendly stadium this season and has ranked 8th, 12th, 18th, 7th and 7th, respectively, over the past five seasons.
Past performance does not necessarily predict future results, but this can be valuable information for bettors looking to gain an advantage.
Latest posts by David Solar (see all)
- Sports Insights Podcast: Episode 4 (August 25, 2016) - August 25, 2016
- How Bettors Can Exploit College Football Top 25 Rankings - August 24, 2016
- It’s Back! The 2016 Early Bird Special is Here! - August 24, 2016