Welcome to the 2012 edition of MLB Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the MLB betting market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record: 7-6 (+3.77 units)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true line value. Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox – 7:10 PM EST
This week’s marketwatch will hone in on a matchup between two teams appearing to be headed in different directions – the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox. The Jays come into Friday’s game on a 3-game skid, and have lost 4 of 6 since returning from the All-Star break. On the contrary, the Red Sox are coming off a walk-off homer from Cody Ross to win Thursday night and have won 5 of 7 since the break.
Starting for Toronto is Aaron Laffey, a left-hander who has only started 4 games on the year and owns a 3.38 ERA. Boston sends righty Josh Beckett to the mound who has been inconsistent on the year, with a 5-7 record and a 4.44 ERA. Beckett has struggled in his career with the Blue Jays, possessing a 4-6 lifetime record and 6.30 ERA.
The over/under on this game currently sits at 9.5 and would likely be higher if not for the injuries of stars Jose Bautista and David Ortiz. Boston has been decimated by injuries to their positions players all year, while Toronto currently has 4 of their starting pitchers on the DL. Be sure to check out our Injury Page for any late, breaking news updates prior to game-time.
Boston opened as a -177 favorite at Pinnacle and, according to Sports Insights’ MLB Betting Trends, is receiving 81% of moneyline wagers, 88% of runline wagers and 83% of parlay bets. Despite this heavily lopsided betting, the line has actually dropped off the opening number at many books. This reverse line movement is an indicator that some sharp money has jumped all on the road dog. In fact, a Steam Move was triggered on Toronto this morning which dropped the line across the marketplace before creeping back up to the opening number.
The importance of shopping for the best line is exemplified in this game– some books like Sportsbook.com, list the Blue Jays as a +160 dog while 5Dimes offers the Blue Jays at +170.
The public betting chart below is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members and shows a breakdown of moneyline Betting Percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks.
According to our BetLabs software, road teams receiving less than 20% of moneyline wagers have gone 100-136 on the year, which is good for +14.87 units and a 6.3% return on investment (ROI). Toronto currently fits this system with only 19% of ML wagers.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the public Betting Percentages have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
At the time of publication, 5Dimes was offering the best price on the Blue Jays at +170 but as a reminder, be sure to shop for the best line before wagering on this game.
Game to Watch (7-6, +3.77 units)
Toronto Blue Jays +170 (5Dimes)
Enjoy the games!