Thursday Night Football: Bills at Jets
Tonight, we have what appears to be a prime example of pros vs. joes with two overachieving AFC East teams facing off against each other. The 5-2 Bills travel to the Meadowlands to take on the 3-5 Jets in what should certainly be a boring affair. However, from a betting perspective, it’s kind of interesting…
At a combined 10-3-2 ATS, these two squads have been a spread bettor’s dream. Though they were expected to have less combined wins than the Patriots this year, both are on pace to easily eclipse their preseason win totals, which the Jets could do with a win tonight.
This line had some legs earlier in the week, with sharp bettors grabbing the Jets at +3.5 while they could. As Chad Millman said in today’s Action Network newsletter, “…the sharps like getting a home dog, even when that dog is the Jets.” Since that move took place on Monday morning at Pinnacle, the line hasn’t moved off the key number of three.
With that being said, 74% of bettors are on the Bills. With their recent wins over the Raiders, Bucs, and Falcons, it’s really not all that surprising. However, with the line sticking at -3, it’s clear that sharp money is not coming in on Buffalo. In fact, we have triggered four bet signals on the Jets compared to zero on the Bills.
The total opened around 43 and has since dropped to 42.5 around the market despite 62% of bets on the ‘over’. One promising thing for the over and the Jets is the fact that the head official is Jerome Boger.
Boger has both a significant home and over bias. In fact, he is thee best “home ref” and “over ref” we have in our database.
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