The Buffalo Bills have been a pleasant surprise in 2011, highlighted by a come-from-behind win against New England in Week 3. While the Bills have given their fans something to cheer for, they’ve been a nightmare for the betting public so far this season.
After posting a 4-12 record in 2010, Buffalo received 46% of spread bets and 37% of parlay wagers in their Week 1 matchup against Kansas City. While the betting percentages were close, it’s safe to say the slight majority of the betting public took the Chiefs, especially since these numbers reflect weeks of wagering action.
The majority of bettors lost in blowout fashion betting against Buffalo in Week 1, so the public flip-flopped and jumped on the Bills in their Week 2 game against the Raiders. While Buffalo won the game, they barely missed covering the 3.5-point spread, making the betting public 0-2 on the season.
The public had no problem laying 7 points with New England in Week 3, as 67% of spread wagers took the Patriots. All seemed well when Tom Brady connected with Rob Gronkowski for a 26-yard touchdown pass midway through the second quarter, putting New England up 21-0.
But Buffalo stormed back in the second half, capping off the comeback with a Rian Lindell field goal as time expired for the straight up victory, making the public 0-3 when betting a Bills game in 2011.
In Week 3, Buffalo’s high-profile win over New England was a big loss for the betting public, causing a significant overreaction in the sports betting marketplace as 81% of spread wagers came down on the Bills against the Bengals.
Much to the public’s chagrin, Buffalo coughed up a 17-3 lead, ultimately losing 23-20. This loss dropped the Bills’ overall record to 3-1, but dropped the betting public to 0-4 when taking a side for or against Buffalo in 2011.
At the time of publication, only 37% of spread wagers have taken Buffalo in their Week 5 game against Philadelphia, indicating another possible overreaction in the market after an ugly loss to Cincinnati.
It’ll be interesting to see if this trend continues and make sure to check our NFL Betting Systems Sunday to see if this game is included in our Week 5 Square Plays or Best Bets.
* Spreads reflect Pinnacle’s closing line.
** Spread betting percentages reflect Sports Insights’ NFL Betting Trends Data.