The Nashville Predators (53-46, +0.08 units) will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss on Monday night when they face off against the Pittsburgh Penguins (63-39, +5.77 units) in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals this evening. Despite the public’s tendency to back the favorite, the majority of bettors believe Nashville will overcome the odds and even the series at one game apiece.
The Penguins opened as -163 favorites at the market-setting Bookmaker.eu, but they have received just 37% of moneyline tickets and 26% of moneyline dollars. The Predators, who opened as +143 underdogs, have received 63% of moneyline tickets and 74% of spread dollars. In fact, Nashville has received the majority of public support at all seven of our contributing sportsbooks.
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Considering the Predators outshot the Penguins 26-12 in Game 1 (and held Pittsburgh without a shot for a 37-minute stretch) it’s not entirely surprising to see public bettors hammering Nashville this evening, however, it’s interesting to see that sharp bettors also like the road ‘dog. On Tuesday morning, there was a Pinnacle steam move triggered on Nashville (+136) which caused the moneyline to move across the marketplace.
It’s important that bettors realize not all steam moves are created equal and market-setting sportsbooks like CRIS and Pinnacle consistently produce the most profitable moves across all six major US sports. I have previously discussed why MLB bettors should follow the Pinnacle moneyline steam move, but it’s also true for NHL bettors.
This season the Pinnacle moneyline steam move has gone 307-307 with +7.0 units won, meaning a $100/game bettors would have earned $700 by following this move. This is one of our best sharp money indicators, and it’s clear that sharps were eager to take Nashville at that price.
With both sharps and squares pounding the visitor, Nashville has moved from +143 to +127 at Bookmaker. In terms of implied probability, that translates to a change from 41.15% to 44.05%.
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It’s important to realize that our only sharp money indicator came when the Predators were still available at +136, but that number is long gone. In order to have long-term success, bettors need to understand they shouldn’t be chasing steam unless they’re able to get the same number as the sharps.
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