Post-Zeke Rushing League Leader Props

Post-Zeke Rushing League Leader Props

When Ezekiel Elliott was suspended for six games, we learned that the Cowboys’ futures wouldn’t really be impacted that much. However, he was expected to be towards the top of both the rushing yards and touchdowns leaderboards. Odds have been off the board at many books for a while now, but have since been re-opened at the sharp offshore book Bookmaker.

Last month when odds were released, Elliott was the favorite to lead the league in rushing yards at +175 and tied at +300 with David Johnson to lead the league in touchdowns. With Elliott out of the picture, how have the odds changed?

Rushing yards league leader

PLAYER Bovada (11/1)Bookmaker (8/16)BetOnline (7/13)
Le'Veon Bell+100+275+350
Kareem Hunt+110N/AN/A
Jordan Howard+1200+1100+800
LeSean McCoy+1200+1200+1400
Melvin Gordon +2000+1350+1600
Todd Gurley +2000+2200+2000
Leonard Fournette+2000N/A+2500
David Johnson N/A+350+900
Jay AjayiN/A+525+800
DeMarco Murray N/A+2000+1400
Devonta Freeman N/A+3500+4000
Adrian Peterson N/A+3500+5000
Lamar MillerN/A+4000+1800
Marshawn Lynch N/A+4000+3300
Isaiah CrowellN/AN/A+4000
Eddie Lacy N/AN/A+4000
Ezekiel Elliott N/AN/A+175

Last year, Elliott led the league with 1,631 rushing yards — 318 more than the runner up, Jordan Howard. He was also the only player to rush the ball more than 300 times. Le’Veon Bell is now the +275 favorite and rightfully so. Last year, he finished fifth in the league with 1,268 rushing yards, but only played in 12 games. If he had played a full 16, he would have been on a pace for 1,690 — almost 400 more than any of the other players with odds listed this year.

David Johnson is also right towards the top, which should come as expected. However, some may be surprised that Jay Ajayi is not too far behind the top two at +500, but he should be. Ajayi began last season as the now-retired Arian Foster’s backup, but burst onto the scene with back-to-back 200 yard performances in October. He ended up playing in 15 games, but like Bell, started in just 12. With Jay Cutler under center, the Dolphins may need to rely even more on Ajayi to carry the offense.

Rushing touchdowns league leader

Player8/16 (Bookmaker)7/14 (BetOnline)
David Johnson+320+300
Le'Veon Bell+600+1200
LeSean McCoy+800+800
Melvin Gordon+1100+1400
Jay Ajayi+1300+1400
DeMarco Murray+1400+1600
Jordan Howard+1400+2500
Devonta Freeman+1700+1400
Todd Gurley+2000+2000
Adrian Peterson+2000+2500
Leonard Fournette+2400+2000
Eddie Lacy+3000+2500
Lamar Miller+3000+3300
Marshawn Lynch+3000+1200
Field (any other player)+1200+500
Tevin ColemanN/A+3300
Isaiah CrowellN/A+2000
Mike GillisleeN/A+1200
Ezekiel ElliotN/A+300

When it comes to scoring, Johnson is clear favorite at +320. He was second in the league last year with 16 rushing TDs, two behind LeGarrette Blount of the Patriots and one ahead of Ezekiel Elliott. With Blount out of New England and Zeke suspended, there’s no reason not to put Johnson head and shoulders above the rest.

Bell’s odds have jumped from 12/1 to 6/1, marking the biggest swing in implied probability. Bell has yet to top ten rushing touchdowns in his career, but has a great chance to this year if he can stop playing drug test hooky.

Jordan Howard’s odds are also much better than they were in BetOnline last month. Lord knows the Bears ought not to throw the ball very much this season with Mike Glennon at QB so the natural replacement…would be rushing the ball. Obviously, Zeke Elliott stole the rookie RB show last year, but Howard was no slouch. Will he improve upon his rookie year or have a sophomore slump and ensure that Bears fans stay miserable for the foreseeable future.

Follow us on Twitter @SportsInsights for more news, analysis…perhaps even a spot of humor here and there.

Mark Gallant

I'm the guy who does his job. You must be the other guy.

No Comments
Post a Comment