Penn State a Trendy Dog in Game of the Week
This weekend, the Nittany lions head to THEE Ohio State University to take on the Buckeyes in a big-10 brouhaha that is currently the most heavily bet game of the weekend by a landslide.
Penn State, the number two country in the nation, has had one hell of a season. They’ve gone 7-0 straight up and 5-1-1 ATS, covering the spread by more than 10 points on average. The sixth ranked Buckeyes are no slouches themselves, though, as they’ve gone 6-1 straight up and 4-3 ATS, including three straight blowouts in which they’ve outscored their opponents 174-28.
Having said that, bettors have migrated towards the undefeated and higher ranked Penn State team. At Pinnacle, they opened as a six point dog—which must look very intriguing given their success this season.
After some wild line movement earlier in the week, Ohio State moved to -6.5 and have settled in there for the past couple of days. They’re getting just 36% of bets, but 44% of dollars, which can help explain the line movement.
It makes sense that Penn State has public support, though. They’re the number two team in the country and spread bettors are getting nearly a touchdown for their efforts. Hard to resist for public bettors.
However, teams in Penn State’s situation have not done well historically, as dogs getting the majority of bets in big games have covered less than 48% of the time per Bet Labs Sports.
Also, line movement has done a great job of predicting the outcome in top-10 showdowns in the past. The team that the line has moved toward (OSU in this case) has gone 53-33-1 ATS dating back to 2005.
Here are some other trends for top-10 showdowns
- Home teams: 47-41-2 ATS
- Favorites: 54-50-3 ATS
- The higher ranked team: 54-50-3 ATS
- Teams w/ less than 50% of bets: 54-48-3 ATS
- Trendy dogs: 22-27-1 ATS
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