NFL Week 15 Betting Recap

– In Week 15, underdogs went 7-7 pushing their season record to 111-106 ATS. Home teams went just 4-10 ATS in Week 14 dropping them to 106-108 ATS on the season. It was also an awful week for contrarian betting with teams receiving less than 60% of spread bets going 4-10 ATS.

– Typically when contrarian betting struggles, sportsbooks take significant losses. That was certainly the case for William Hill who had a bettor win an utterly improbable 20-leg teaser this weekend:

– Browns QB Johnny Manziel made his first career start this weekend in a highly anticipated showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals. Due to Johnny Football’s tremendous popularity, there were no shortages of prop bets available. However, Manziel struggled immensely finishing with just 80 yards passing and two interceptions on 10 of 18 passing.

– One player who never seems to struggle is Patriots QB Tom Brady who has posted an NFL-best 117-79 ATS record (playoffs included) since 2003. He is followed by Peyton Manning (105-79 ATS w/ +22.07 units won), Aaron Rodgers (64-41 ATS w/ +20.68 units won) and Drew Brees (102-84 ATS w/ +14.52 units won).

– Prior to the start of the season, we posted the 2014 NFL Divisional Odds for all 32 teams. It may have taken fifteen weeks, but two of the eight divisions were settled this week:

  1. Odds to Win the 2014 NFC East: Dallas Cowboys -250 | Philadelphia Eagles +170
  2. Odds to Win the 2014 NFC North: Green Bay Packers -400 | Detroit Lions +300
  3. Odds to Win the 2014 NFC South: New Orleans Saints -225 | Atlanta Falcons +400 | Carolina Panthers +400
  4. Odds to Win the 2014 NFC West: Seattle Seahawks -300 | Arizona Cardinals +200
  5. Odds to Win the 2014 AFC North: Baltimore Ravens +160 | Pittsburgh Steelers +160 | Cincinnati Bengals +200

Sportsbook Insider customers have access to our number of bets statistic, and here are this week’s three most popular games amongst bettors:

– We have updated our NFL win projections and look ahead to potential playoff matchups.

– Although the prop bet is no longer available, last week the odds of Bears head coach Marc Trestman not being retained for the 2015 season was listed at -200. After another embarrassing loss, his firing seems to be even more inevitable.

– NFL Week 15 current lines at Pinnacle versus preseason lines:

  1. Tennessee Titans (+3 | -3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (-9 | -1.5) at Washington Redskins
  3. San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5 | -7)
  4. Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (N/A | -7.5)
  5. Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+7 | -4)
  6. Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (+4.5 | -1)
  7. Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (-7 | -4)
  8. Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-5.5 | -6.5)
  9. New England Patriots (-10.5 | -3) at New York Jets
  10. Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3 | -1.5)
  11. Green Bay Packers (-10.5 | -3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  12. New York Giants at St. Louis Rams (-5 | -3)
  13. Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-3 | -2.5)
  14. Buffalo Bills (-5.5 | -1) at Oakland Raiders
  15. Seattle Seahawks (-7.5 | -3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
  16. Denver Broncos (-3 | -1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

– Largest discrepancies between current Pinnacle lines and preseason lines from CG Technologies:

  1. Lions: 11 points
  2. Patriots: 7.5 points
  3. Packers: 7.5 points
  4. Eagles: 7.5 points
  5. Jaguars: 6 points

– You can view the latest odds and public betting trends on our free NFL odds page, but here are some key Week 15 injuries to monitor:

  1. Panthers QB Cam Newton, Back, Questionable
  2. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray, Hand, Questionable
  3. Bills RB C.J. Spiller, Collarbone, Questionable
  4. Falcons WR Julio Jones, Hip, Probable
  5. Redskins RB Alfred Morris, Groin, Probable
  6. Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles, Knee, Probable
  7. 49ers RB Frank Gore, Concussion, Questionable
  8. Colts WR T.Y. Hilton, Hamstring, Questionable
  9. Chargers WR Keenan Allen, Ankle, Questionable
  10. Broncos T Ryan Clady, Leg, Questionable
  11. Browns CS Joe Haden, Shoulder, Questionable

– Injuries are causing quarterback controversy for a number of teams this week. Jaguars QB Blake Bortles (Ankle) is listed as questionable for Thursday night’s game and could be replaced by Chad Henne. After being benched, Robert Griffin III will start over the injured Colt McCoy (Neck) for the Redskins. In Houston, Case Keenum will start in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick who is out for the season with a leg injury. In Arizona, Ryan Lindley will start against the Seahawks following injuries to both Carson Palmer (Knee) and Drew Stanton (Knee). Finally, the Panthers/Browns game is currently off the board as we await an update on Cam Newton (Back). Veteran Derek Anderson would get the nod if Newton is unable to play again this week.

– Updated MVP Odds from Sportsbook.com (Last Week’s Odds)

  1. Aaron Rodgers -800 (-1500)
  2. Tom Brady +400 (+1800)
  3. JJ Watt +1000 (+1800)
  4. DeMarco Murray +1200 (+2000)
  5. Peyton Manning +1500 (+2000)
  6. Andrew Luck +3000 (Unchanged)
  7. LeVeon Bell +5000 (N/A)
  8. Rob Gronkowski +10000 (+7500)

– Most likely Super Bowl matchups (via 5Dimes)

  1. New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks +484
  2. New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers +588
  3. Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks +718
  4. Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers +864
  5. New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys +2260
  6. Indianapolis Colts vs Seattle Seahawks +2825
  7. New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions +3100
  8. Denver Broncos vs Dallas Cowboys +3200
  9. New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals +3225
  10. Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers +3350

– Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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