NFL Week 12 Opening Line Report

Tonight the Patriots will look to join the Panthers as the only undefeated 10-0 teams in the NFL as they host the Bills to conclude Week 11.

Looking ahead to Week 12, we have three games on Thanksgiving to begin a crazy week of football, and below we’ve compared how current odds at Pinnacle have differed from lookahead lines at CG Technology over the summer.

Matchup Current Line (11/23) Opening Line (11/22) Look Ahead (4/25)
CAR at DAL DAL pk DAL -1.5 DAL -4.5
PHI at DET PHI -1 PHI -1 DET -2
CHI at GB GB -8 GB -8 GB -7.5
MIN at ATL ATL -2.5 ATL -2.5 ATL -1.5
ARZ at SF ARZ -10.5 ARZ -10.5 SF -2
PIT at SEA SEA -4.5 SEA -4 SEA -5.5
NO at HOU HOU -3 HOU -3 HOU -2
TB at IND IND -3 IND -3 IND -9.5 (w/Luck)
SD at JAX JAX -4 JAX -5 SD -4.5
OAK at TEN OAK -2 OAK -2 TEN -2
NE at DEN No Line No Line DEN -2.5 (w/Manning)
BUF at KC No Line No Line KC -2.5
MIA at NYJ NYJ -3.5 NYJ -3.5 MIA -1.5
STL at CIN CIN -8 CIN -9 CIN -2.5 (vs. Foles)
NYG at WAS NYG -2 NYG -1 NYG -1
BAL at CLE CLE -2.5 CLE -1 BAL -3 (w/Flacco)

The Cowboys opened -1.5 at Pinnacle but are down to a pick ’em with 80% of early bets coming in on the Panthers. Oddsmakers weren’t quite expecting Carolina to be as dominant as they have been, which is why we’re seeing such a big difference since April.

The next game that really jumps out is Arizona-San Francisco. Of course back in April it would have been tough to predict the plethora of injuries and suspensions that the 49ers would endure, but this matchup is now nearly a 2-touchdown difference. We’d expect the public to hammer the road favorites but the real value may be on San Fran, as double-digit home dogs have gone 38-24 ATS since 2003 (via BetLabsSports.com).

Other big discrepancies from April include the Colts, Jaguars, and Bengals but all can be attributed to different factors. The Colts are now only -3 because Matt Hasselbeck is starting for the injured Andrew Luck. The Jags are now -5 because the Chargers have severely underperformed throughout the season and plainly just aren’t very good, while Jacksonville is somehow in the middle of the AFC South title race. Finally, the Bengals are -8 due to their solid performance all year coupled with the Rams’ QB woes, and it’s still unclear who St. Louis will turn to.

We’ll be posting our Week 12 Line Moves that Matter and as always, you can keep up with the latest odds moves, betting percentages, injuries and more at our Free Live Odds page.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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