2015 College Football: Week 13 Opening Line Report
This week features a number of rivalry games and key matchups to make conference title games. Pinnacle released early lines on Sunday morning for Florida-FSU, Ohio State-Michigan, and Notre Dame-Stanford which we’ll highlight below.
Florida State at Florida: Pinnacle opened this game Florida -3 early Sunday morning and bettors were not sold on that line at all. As of now, nearly 80% of bets are taking FSU which has moved the line around the market to FSU -2, a five-point difference in a matter of 12 hours. Here’s a look at the hourly spread betting at Pinnacle:
Ohio State at Michigan: Again it appears that Pinnacle opened this game with the wrong team favored, as Ohio State was -2.5 Sunday morning but that quickly moved to Michigan -1.5. However, the lookahead line at Golden Nugget from June may have something to do with that, as Ohio State was listed -16 for this matchup. Ohio State lost their bid for a perfect season but both teams still have an opportunity to get into the Big Ten Title Game with a win. Based on last season’s turn of events at the end of the season (Ohio State destroying Wisconsin in the Big Ten Title Game), it’s possibly the committee could select the Big Ten winner for the CFB playoff this year, too. Right now spread bets are fairly even with Michigan getting the slight majority at 54% and we’d expect these betting percentages to stay pretty close the entire week.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State: This game is incredibly intriguing for a number of reasons. There’s a perception that the Big 12 is much weaker than other conferences, yet there have been four teams that people have been talking about all season: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. Right now much of the market has this game off the board with Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield questionable with a head injury, but 5Dimes is listing Oklahoma -4.5. The lookahead line for this game was Oklahoma -3 back in June so not a whole lot has changed. Both teams have identical 7-1 conference records and 10-1 overall records, and many people believe that Oklahoma should get into the CFB Playoff with a victory, and oddsmakers believe they have the edge. 5Dimes is also the only sportsbook reporting betting percentages at this time, with the Sooners getting nearly 2/3 of early bets. Even if Mayfield is 100% healthy, the value is likely on the home dogs at anything above +4.
Notre Dame at Stanford: The trend continues as Pinnacle opened Notre Dame -1.5 on the road but has swung all the way to Stanford -3.5. Stanford is getting the early majority of spread bets (60%) and a lackluster performance from the Irish last week at Fenway Park is probably deterring bettors. The Irish also will likely be without star RB CJ Prosise, but Notre Dame has essentially dealt with every single injury they’ve suffered this season. Seeing Notre Dame live in person last week didn’t impress me and if Stanford can turn them over like BC did, it will be a long night for the Irish.