NFL Week 1 Futures Changes

After just 1 game for 28 NFL teams, new futures prices have shown how the market has reacted after seeing just 1/16th of the season.  Below shows the futures prices both before and after Week 1 (via BetOnline).  I also converted those moneylines into implied percentages.  The table is sorted by change in percentage, meaning the teams that saw their implied odds increase the most are at the top.

  Odds Prior Odds After % Prior % After % Change
Seahawks 550 450 15.4% 18.2% 2.8%
49ers 1000 800 9.1% 11.1% 2.0%
Eagles 2500 1600 3.8% 5.9% 2.0%
Bengals 3300 2500 2.9% 3.8% 0.9%
Dolphins 7500 4500 1.3% 2.2% 0.9%
Lions 4500 2200 2.2% 4.3% 2.2%
Titans 15000 8500 0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
Vikings 10000 6500 1.0% 1.5% 0.5%
Jets 8000 7500 1.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Falcons 4000 4000 2.4% 2.4% 0%
Bills 10000 8500 1.0% 1.2% 0.2%
Broncos 450 450 18.2% 18.2% 0%
Steelers 4000 4000 2.4% 2.4% 0%
Jaguars 25000 30000 0.4% 0.3% -0.1%
Panthers 4000 4000 2.4% 2.4% 0%
Texans 5000 6000 2.0% 1.6% -0.3%
Raiders 15000 30000 2.0% 1.6% -0.3%
Chargers 3300 5000 2.9% 2.0% -1.0%
Chiefs 6600 9500 1.5% 1.0% -0.5%
Cowboys 6000 8500 1.6% 1.2% -0.5%
Buccaneers 7500 12500 1.3% 0.8% -0.5%
Browns 8000 15000 1.2% 0.7% -0.6%
Rams 8000 15000 1.2% 0.7% -0.6%
Saints 900 1100 10.0% 8.3% -1.7%
Giants 4000 9500 2.4% 1.0% -1.4%
Cardinals 3300 4000 2.9% 2.4% -0.5%
Redskins 5000 10000 2.0% 1.0% -1.0%
Ravens 3300 6500 2.9% 1.5% -1.4%
Colts 2000 3500 4.8% 2.8% -2.0%
Bears 2500 5000 3.8% 2.0% -1.9%
Patriots 750 1000 11.8% 9.1% -2.7%
Packers 800 1200 11.1% 7.7% -3.4%

Note: All lines are from BetOnline and some lines have changed after the post was originally published.

The two biggest movers both played in the opening game on Thursday night.  The defending champion Seahawks dominated on the field and their futures moved from +550 to +450 (a 2.8% increase).  The team that they dominated, the Packers, saw their odds plummet from +800 to +1400 (a 4.44% decrease).

Other teams that saw their odds increase are the Eagles, whose offense exploded in the 2nd half to come back and beat the Jaguars, and the 49ers who pummeled a hapless Cowboys team whose championship hopes seem to have already been intercepted.

Two teams coming off disappointing losses also saw their odds fall.  The Bears were a trendy pick prior to the season but a bad home loss to the Bills saw their odds fall from +2500 to +4500.  The Patriots (who I highlighted as a good season win total under) were unable to get anything going in the second half against division rival Miami.

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Travis

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