This week’s game of the week may surprise bettors, as both the Saints (4-5) and Redskins (3-5) have losing records this season. However, sometimes the most entertaining games don’t always offer the best value.
In one of Sunday’s least bet games, the Saints opened as a ‘pick em and have received 84% of spread bets. In fact, New Orleans is the most popular team this week and this one-sided public betting has helped the Saints move from a pick ’em to -1 at CRIS.
There has been similarly lopsided public betting in Las Vegas. According to Michael Grodsky of the William Hill sportsbook, the Saints have received 84% of tickets yet the Redskins have received 62% of total dollars wagered. This information indicates that even though a majority of public bettors like New Orleans, large wagers from sharp bettors have been taking Washington. In other words, this is the perfect example of “Pros vs. Joes” with Pros taking the ‘Skins and Joes taking the Saints.
Examining the individual betting trends at our contributing sportsbooks provides additional insight into public betting. While the Saints are receiving more than 90% of spread bets at square books like BetUs and Sportsbook.com, there’s a much more even split at 5Dimes — one of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks.
The Redskins currently fit our 80/20 betting rule which looks at underdogs receiving less than 20% of spread bets. Since 2003, teams fitting these criteria have gone 105-83 ATS (55.9%) with +16.73 units won during the regular season. When that team lost their previous game by at least a touchdown, that record improves to 59-39 ATS (60.2%) with +16.52 units won.
These numbers are subject to change before kickoff, so bettors should be sure to visit our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, injuries, public betting trends and more.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.
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