NFL Game of the Week: Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts

In his return to Indy, Peyton Manning and the Broncos opened as 3-point road favorites at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook. At the time of publication, Denver was receiving 81% of spread bets at our seven contributing offshore sportsbooks. This overwhelming public support has pushed the line from -3 to -5.

DEN IND line

We also spoke with Michael Grodsky of the William Hill sportsbook, who said that they had seen even more one-sided public betting. As of Wednesday evening, 92% of tickets and 96% of total dollars wagered were taking the Broncos.

The screenshot below displays the breakdown of our contributing offshore sportsbooks:

DEN IND Line Graph

This low level of public support is somewhat surprising, despite the Colts recent struggles. Since 2003, Indianapolis has received less than 20% of spread bets just twice, with both occurrences coming in 2011 when Peyton Manning missed the entire season due to neck surgery and the Colts posted a league-worst 2-14 record.

Such limited support is also stunning based on Andrew Luck’s past performance at Lucas Oil Stadium. Since entering the league in 2012, Luck has been the league’s most profitable home quarterback, boasting a 20-8 ATS record with +10.73 units earned.

Home QB

We constantly preach the importance of buying on bad news and selling on good, and this game represents the perfect opportunity to do both. While the Colts are coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Panthers in a prime time game, the Broncos beat the previously undefeated Packers by 19-points on Sunday.

Not only do the Colts fit our much-discussed 80/20 betting rule, they also fit one of our ESPN betting systems which explains why bettors should fade teams coming off a double-digit ATS win at home.

These numbers are subject to change before kickoff, so bettors should be sure to visit our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, injuries, public betting trends and more.

Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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