NFL Game of the Week: Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts
In his return to Indy, Peyton Manning and the Broncos opened as 3-point road favorites at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook. At the time of publication, Denver was receiving 81% of spread bets at our seven contributing offshore sportsbooks. This overwhelming public support has pushed the line from -3 to -5.
We also spoke with Michael Grodsky of the William Hill sportsbook, who said that they had seen even more one-sided public betting. As of Wednesday evening, 92% of tickets and 96% of total dollars wagered were taking the Broncos.
The screenshot below displays the breakdown of our contributing offshore sportsbooks:
This low level of public support is somewhat surprising, despite the Colts recent struggles. Since 2003, Indianapolis has received less than 20% of spread bets just twice, with both occurrences coming in 2011 when Peyton Manning missed the entire season due to neck surgery and the Colts posted a league-worst 2-14 record.
Such limited support is also stunning based on Andrew Luck’s past performance at Lucas Oil Stadium. Since entering the league in 2012, Luck has been the league’s most profitable home quarterback, boasting a 20-8 ATS record with +10.73 units earned.
We constantly preach the importance of buying on bad news and selling on good, and this game represents the perfect opportunity to do both. While the Colts are coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Panthers in a prime time game, the Broncos beat the previously undefeated Packers by 19-points on Sunday.
These numbers are subject to change before kickoff, so bettors should be sure to visit our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, injuries, public betting trends and more.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.