NFL Game of the Week: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
With their impressive Thanksgiving Day victory over Dallas coupled with New England’s shocking loss to Denver on Sunday night, the Carolina Panthers are now the only remaining undefeated team in football. Although the Patriots (+313) still have better odds of winning the Super Bowl than the Panthers (+417), last week’s results did have a tremendous impact on the betting market.
Cam Brady’s odds of winning the MVP improved from +300 to +140 while Tom Brady’s odds dropped from -275 to +100. We also saw the Panthers odds of going 16-0 improve from +425 to +380 while their odds of going 19-0 improved from +1500 to +1300 at 5Dimes.
Panthers Props (5Dimes)
Cam Newton MVP: +140
NFC Champ: +210
16-0 Regular Season: +425
18-0 NFC Champ: +775
19-0 Super Bowl Champion: +1300
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) December 1, 2015
While the Panthers have been one of the season’s best stories, it’s been a very disappointing year for their division rivals. The Saints (+175) were the preseason favorite to win the NFC South at BetOnline, but they currently sit in last place with a 4-7 record. Although they’ve attempted to remedy their defensive woes by firing Rob Ryan, New Orleans still ranks dead last in scoring defense allowing nearly 31 points per game.
With two teams heading in opposite directions, the Panthers opened as 6-point favorites at CRIS and have received 82% of spread bets. The screenshot below, available to our Sportsbook Insider Pro members, illustrates how this game has been bet at our seven contributing sportsbooks:
We also spoke with Ryan Oakes from the William Hill sportsbook, where they reported similar public betting. At the time of publication, Carolina was receiving 86% of tickets and 80% of total dollars wagered. This overwhelming public support has moved Carolina from -6 to -7 across the sports betting marketplace.
These betting trends and line movement are fascinating for countless reasons. For starters, there have been no bet signals triggered on Carolina which indicates that public money is solely responsible for this 1-point line move. It’s also important because “7” is the second most common margin of victory.
In our database, the Saints have never closed as larger than a 6-point dog at home. They're currently +7 for Sunday's game against Carolina.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) December 2, 2015
At the time of publication, there had been a number of profitable betting systems triggered on the Saints +7 including:
- ESPN Week 4: Betting Against the Public after Bad Offensive Outing
- NFL 80/20 Rule
- Updated 80/20 Rule: Underdogs of 7+ in Conference Games
- 2015 NFL Betting Against the Public Report
- Many more Pro systems available in the Bet Labs Think Tank
In addition to all of these winning betting systems, we should note that underdogs have historically performed very well in divisional games since the familiarity between teams levels the playing field and that disproportionately benefits the team getting points.
It can be difficult for many bettors to fade an undefeated team against the league’s worst defense, but that’s part and parcel with following a contrarian betting strategy. New Orleans is offering clear cut value as a 7-point home ‘dog.
These numbers are subject to change before kickoff, so bettors should be sure to visit our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, injuries, public betting trends and more.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.