NCAAF Game of the Week: TCU at Texas Tech
In this weekend’s most bet game, the TCU Horned Frogs (3-0) will travel to Lubbock for their showdown with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0). The Horned Frogs, who are ranked #3 in the latest AP Top 25 poll, opened as 7.5-point favorites at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook and are currently receiving 62% of spread bets.
Since the line opened on Sunday evening, TCU has dropped from -7.5 to -6.5. Although we typically look for more lopsided betting when we refer to reverse line movement, this 1-point swing does seem to indicate that sharp money likes Texas Tech in Saturday’s matchup — especially since the line crossed the key number of 7.
This information is validated by one of our Bet Labs betting systems. Since 2005, high-scoring teams have performed exceptionally well in conference games — particularly when playing on home turf. Teams who have scored at least 35 points in three consecutive games have gone 325-265 ATS (55.1%) with +45.35 units won. Although these teams are profitable regardless of where the game is being played, you can see that the return on investment (ROI) is three times higher in home games.
We have also observed interesting line movement and public betting trends on both the moneyline and total. Although bettors are largely picking TCU against the spread, many bettors believe that Texas Tech could pull off the upset. According to our betting trends, 75% of moneyline bettors are taking the Red Raiders as a +212 underdog.
Entering this week the highest closing total this season was 78.5, however, the TCU/Texas Tech total opened at 79. Despite being the highest total of the season, 74% of bettors have taken the over. This one-sided public betting has moved the line from 79 to 82. Perhaps bettors are reacting to an early season trend in which overs have been extremely profitable in games with high totals.
With Memphis' 53-46 victory over Cincinnati last night, the over has now gone 14-2 this season when the total closes at 70 or higher.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) September 25, 2015
Dating back to 2005, the over has gone 158-143 (52.5%) when the total closes at 70 or higher. If we exclude this season’s results that record drops to 144-141 ATS (50.5%), so perhaps bettors shouldn’t necessarily overreact to this recent trend.
Looking for a player to watch? Keep your eyes on TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin. The 6’2″ senior opened the season as the favorite (+625) to win the Heisman Trophy and, despite tallying 1133 total yards and 12 total touchdowns in three games, has inexplicably dropped to +1000.
These numbers are subject to change before kickoff, so bettors should be sure to visit our free College Football odds page for the latest lines, injuries, public betting trends and more.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.