2015-16 Heisman Odds

Heisman odds for the 2015-16 College Football season were released in late January, and the defending champion Ohio State Buckeyes dominated the top-15 with four candidates listed. This included the front runner in running back Ezekiel Elliott (+600) along with all three of their perspective starting quarterbacks: Cardale Jones (+1,400), J.T. Barrett (+1,600) and Braxton Miller (+1,800).

Jones, who was the Buckeyes starting quarterback in the National Championship game, opened as the favorite to start the first game of the regular season. However, since then the tides have changed and J.T. Barrett is now expected to re-claim the role.

Several weeks after Bovada posted Heisman odds, the sharper oddsmakers at 5Dimes posted their own Heisman futures with a few notable changes. For starters, they listed TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin (+750) as a slight favorite over Elliott. They also posted odds for two players that did not appear on Bovada’s inital list: Arizona QB Jarrett Solomon and Tennessee QB Joshua Dobbs — both of whom opened at +2000.

The table below compares the Heisman odds at 5Dimes throughout the season. As always, we encourage all bettors to shop for the best line before placing any wagers.

Player School 12/5 11/21 11/10 10/23 10/6 9/23 9/9 8/29 7/1 3/14 1/30 (Bovada)
Derrick Henry Alabama -565 -205 +215 +1615 +2000 +1200 +1300 +2500 +2200 +1400 +1400
Deshaun Watson Clemson +400 +500 +600 +3035 +2500 +2200 +1800 +2000 +1800 +1500 +3300
Christian McCaffrey Stanford +1580 +6600 +2000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Dalvin Cook Florida State +2150 N/A +10000 +2100 N/A +2500 +4500 +4000 +4500 +3300 +3300
Baker Mayfield Oklahoma +2175 +1350 +5000 +6500 N/A N/A +5000 +5500 N/A N/A N/A
Leonard Fournette LSU +2400 +600 +135 -242 -250 +500 +1300 +1300 +1275 +1150 +700
Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State +2800 +500 +1000 +1615 +900 +1000 +650 +925 +875 +800 +600
Corey Coleman Baylor +5000 +5000 +800 +3300 N/A N/A +18500 +18500 +15000 N/A N/A
Trevone Boykin TCU N/A +5000 +2500 +455 +1000 +1000 +750 +625 +850 +750 +750
Devontae Booker Utah N/A +10000 +10000 +6000 N/A N/A +16000 +16000 +15000 N/A N/A
Cody Kessler USC N/A N/A N/A N/A +2500 +1300 +1100 +1400 +1400 +1300 +1200
Connor Cook Michigan State N/A N/A +2000 +7500 +6000 +2200 +2750 +3000 +4000 +2000 +2000
Paxton Lynch Memphis N/A N/A +15000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jalen Hurd Tennessee N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +6600 +10000 +10000 +8000 +5000 +5000
C.J. Prosise Notre Dame N/A N/A N/A +10000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Paul Perkins UCLA N/A N/A N/A N/A +7500 +5000 +4500 +4500 +4000 +1200 +1200
Kenyan Drake Alabama N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +17500 +20000 N/A N/A N/A
Gunner Kiel Cincinnati N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +15000 N/A N/A
Samaje Perine Oklahoma N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +1500 +2700 +2400 +1400 +1400
Vernon Adams Oregon N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +3000 +3800 +4500 N/A N/A
Justin Thomas Georgia Tech N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +3500 +6500 +6600 +3300 +3300
Ryan Switzer North Carolina N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +15000 N/A N/A
Jacoby Brissett North Carolina State N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +14000 +14000 +8000 +5000 +5000
Braxton Miller Ohio State N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +1800 +5500 +2800 +2500 +1800
D.J. Foster Arizona State N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +4500 +9000 +6000 +3300 +2500
Corey Clement Wisconsin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +4500 +9000 +6600 +3300 +2500
Michael Brewer Virginia Tech N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +15000 N/A N/A
Cardale Jones Ohio State N/A N/A N/A N/A +5000 +2000 +1100 +1900 +1600 +1500 +1400
Jarrett Solomon Arizona N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +6000 +6000 +5000 +2000 N/A
Will Gardner Louisville N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +15000 N/A N/A
Joshua Dobbs Tennessee N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +7500 +10000 +7500 +2000 N/A
J.T. Barrett Ohio State N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +2500 +1500 +2300 +2500 +1600
Christian Hackenberg Penn State N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +9000 +9000 +9000 N/A N/A
Scooby Wright Arizona N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 +11500 +12500 +6600 +6600
Malik Zaire Notre Dame N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +1500 +3500 N/A N/A N/A
Jerrod Heard Texas N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10500 +10500 +9000 N/A N/A
Pharoh Cooper South Carolina N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +12000 +12000 N/A N/A N/A
Nick Wilson Arizona N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +12500 +12500 +8000 +3300 +3300
Mike Bercovici Arizona State N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +12500 +12500 +15000 N/A N/A
Jovon Robinson Auburn N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +12500 +12500 +10000 N/A N/A
Laquon Treadwell Mississippi N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +12500 +17500 +12500 +6600 +6600
Jacob Coker Alabama N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +12500 +12500 +8000 N/A N/A
Brad Kaaya Miami N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +5000 +8500 +9000 +7000 +3300 +3300
Kyle Allen Texas A&M N/A N/A N/A N/A +3500 N/A +6600 +6600 +9000 N/A N/A
Marquise Williams North Carolina N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +17500 +17500 +10000 +5000 +5000
Keenan Reynolds Navy N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +17500 +17500 +10000 N/A N/A
Jonathan Williams Arkansas N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +17500 +17500 +12500 N/A N/A
Mason Rudolph Oklahoma State N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +17500 +20000 +5500 +4000 +4000
Josh Rosen UCLA N/A N/A N/A N/A +9000 N/A +1500 +7500 +5000 N/A N/A
Myles Jack UCLA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +17500 +17500 +15000 N/A N/A
Dak Prescott Mississippi State N/A N/A N/A N/A +2000 +5000 +2000 +2000 +1425 +850 +700
Demarcus Robinson Florida N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +12500 +12500 N/A N/A
Adoree' Jackson USC N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +15000 +15000 N/A N/A
Kyler Murray Texas A&M N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +20000 +7500 N/A N/A
D'haquille Williams Auburn N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +20000 +12500 N/A N/A
Aaron Green TCU N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +20000 +12500 N/A N/A
Luke Falk Washington St N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +20000 N/A N/A N/A
Speedy Noil Texas A&M N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +20000 N/A N/A N/A
Mike Williams Clemson N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +22500 +22500 +12500 N/A N/A
Kevin Hogan Stanford N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +22500 +22500 +15000 N/A N/A
Jared Goff California N/A N/A N/A N/A +2000 N/A +3500 +10000 +8500 +5000 +5000
Jon Hilliman Boston College N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +15000 N/A N/A
Joey Bosa Ohio State N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +10000 N/A N/A
Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +12500 N/A N/A
Brandon Doughty Western Kentucky N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +15000 N/A N/A
Storm Woods Oregon State N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +15000 N/A N/A
Jonathan Gray Texas N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +15000 N/A N/A
Shawn Oakman Baylor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +15000 N/A N/A
Jeremy Johnson Auburn N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +3000 +2500 +2300 +2000 +1600
Robert Nkemdiche Mississippi N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +15000 N/A N/A
James Conner Pittsburgh N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +8500 +6600 +3300 +3300
Taysom Hill BYU N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +5500 +5500 N/A N/A
Devon Johnson Marshall N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +35000 +35000 +20000 N/A N/A
Kenneth Dixon Louisiana Tech N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +35000 +35000 +20000 N/A N/A
Jarrett Stidham Baylor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 +30000 +17500 N/A N/A
Rashard Higgins Colorado State N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 +30000 +15000 N/A N/A
Chuckie Keeton Utah State N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +15000 N/A N/A
Dom Williams Washington State N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +15000 N/A N/A
Nick Chubb Georgia N/A N/A N/A N/A +1600 +750 +1000 +1225 +1200 +1100 +1200
Royce Freeman Oregon N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +4500 +3000 +5000 +5000 +3000 +2500
Daniel Lasco California N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 +15000 N/A N/A
Everett Golson Florida State N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +5000 +5000 +5000 +3000 N/A N/A
OSU Player Ohio State N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +560 N/A N/A
Myles Garrett Texas A&M N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +20000 N/A N/A N/A
Seth Russell Baylor N/A N/A N/A +610 +800 +1000 +1200 +2000 +5000 +3300 +3300
Josh Doctson TCU N/A N/A N/A +8500 N/A N/A +22500 +22500 +12500 N/A N/A

It’s interesting to see Bovada listed a running back as the preseason favorite despite the fact that quarterbacks have been awarded the Heisman Trophy in each of the past five seasons. It may also interest bettors to know that Ohio State is tied with Notre Dame for the most Heisman wins all-time with seven.

When we re-examined the odds months later, we noticed a number of changes. Not only was there significant line movement, but we also saw odds posted for a number of new players — perhaps most notable is new Florida State quarterback Everett Golson who opened at +3000.

With all of the indecision regarding the Ohio State starting quarterback, it was interesting to see 5Dimes post odds for any Ohio State player to win the Heisman (+560). This bet would include the QB’s (Barrett, Jones and Miller) in addition to running back Ezekiel Elliott (+875) and defensive end Joey Bosa (+10000).

Looking for a potentially undervalued player? How about Baylor QB Seth Russell at +5000? The rising Junior will finally emerge from the shadows after years of backing up perennial Heisman candidate Bryce Petty. The 6’3″ quarterback passed for 438 yards and 5 touchdowns in his loan start last season, and will benefit from the Bears prolific, speed-oriented, passer-friendly offense.

Baylor led all of FBS in scoring last season and will return leading rusher Shock Linwood (1252 rush yards in ’14), along with receivers Corey Coleman (64 receptions for 1,119 yards), KD Cannon (58 receptions for 1,030 yards) and Jay Lee (41 receptions for 633 yards). This team has the fourth best odds of winning the national title, but Russell is listed as a Heisman longshot at +3,300.

When we first posted this article, there were also a few peculiar differences between the Heisman odds at 5Dimes and Bovada. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, who was injured for half of his freshman season, was listed at +3300 to win the award at Bovada but just +1500 at 5Dimes.

On the flip side there is the case of LSU running back Leonard Fournette, who rushed for over 1,000 and 10 touchdowns as a freshman. The nation’s top recruit in 2014, Fournette’s Heisman odds are +1150 at 5Dimes but just +700 at Bovada.

The table below shows the past winners of this award along with their odds and the first week that they were available as an option (via SportsOddsHistory.com).

Year Player School Odds Available Odds
2014 Marcus Mariota Oregon Pre-Season +700
2013 Jameis Winston Florida State Week 2 +600
2012 Johnny Manziel Texas A&M Week 8 +1200
2011 Robert Griffin III Baylor Pre-Season +2800
2010 Cam Newton Auburn Week 3 +2000
2009 Mark Ingram Alabama Week 4 +3300

Still looking for a sleeper pick? Check out how oddsmakers view expectations for some of the top players in the nation.


9/9/15 Update:

We recommended betting on Baylor’s Seth Russell to win the Heisman when he was still listed at +5000. Before the start of the season he jumped to +2000 and, after posting 435 total yards and 6 total touchdowns in Week 1, Russell has leaped to +1200. That gives him the sixth-best odds in the Nation.

In another interesting Week 1 development, Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 122 yards on just 11 carries and saw his Heisman odds improve from +925 to +650. During that same time, TCU’s Trevone Boykin was mediocre in his season debut and dropped from +625 to +750.

Other significant moves other the past ten days include Cardale Jones (+1900 to +1100) who was named as Ohio State’s starting quarterback over J.T. Barrett (who dropped from +1500 to +2500). It was also great to see Braxton Miller thrive in his first game since being converted to wide receiver. The 6’2″ senior tallied 78 receiving yards, 62 rushing yards and one highlight reel spin move en route to a touchdown. This impressive debut moved Miller from +5500 to +1800.

BYU’s Taysom Hill (Foot) and Pittsburgh’s James Conner (Knee) both suffered season ending injuries in their first game of the season, which is why their odds are no longer being displayed.


9/23/15 Update

Last week LSU running back Leonard Fournette carried the ball 19 times for 228 yards and 3 touchdowns in a victory over Auburn. This impressive performance moved Fournette’s odds from +1300 to +475, making him the new Heisman front-runner.

My preseason value pick, Baylor QB Seth Russell, now has the third shortest odds at +1000. That ties him with TCU QB Trevone Boykin, who entered the season as the favorite at +625.


10/6/15 Update

Since our last update, Leonard Fournette has continued his dominance with a combined 477 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns in back-to-back wins over Syracuse and Eastern Michigan.

Fournette is now favored over the field, which is incredible to see after just four games. This seems to be a massive overreaction, especially since LSU hasn’t gotten into the heart of their schedule yet. I would highly suggest taking the field at +190 and, if Fournette struggles in the near future, potentially waiting until Fournette is available as plus money and taking the arbitrage opportunity.

Other major risers include Jared Goff (from N/A to +2000) and Dak Prescott (+5000 to +200) while the major droppers include Nick Chubb (+750 to +1600) and Cardale Jones (+2000 to +5000).


10/23/15 Update

In the past two weeks Leonard Fournette has maintained his status as the Heisman front runner as his odds have barely moved from -250 to -242. In wins against South Carolina and Florida, Fournette rushed for a combined 338 yards and 3 touchdowns. LSU has another cakewalk this weekend against Western Kentucky before facing Alabama. A loss in Tuscaloosa could finally cause Fournette’s odds to drop.

We should also note that Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending injury, which is why his odds have been taken off the board. It’s also interesting that Florida State running back Dalvin Cook was not listed two weeks ago, but is now available at +2100. The speedy sophomore has racked up 492 total yards over the past two games and has 955 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the season.

Checking in with my preseason pick, Seth Russell continues to impress and has moved from +800 to +610. The junior quarterback dazzled last week with 380 passing yards, 160 rushing yards, and 6 total touchdowns in a win over West Virginia.

While Russell has impressed, TCU’s Trevone Boykin appears to be Fournette’s toughest competition. The athletic quarterback has piled up 737 passing yards and 198 rushing yards over his last two games and should post another monster game this week against West Virginia.


11/10/15 Update

In the past two weeks, we have seen a lot of shake-up to the Heisman odds. Baylor’s Seth Russell suffered a season-ending injury and has been taken off the board while his number one target, Corey Coleman, has jumped from +3300 to +800.

It’s also been a rough stretch for Trevone Boykin who threw four interceptions in Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma State. Although his numbers are still fantastic on the season (3,373 passing yards, 597 rushing yards, 37 total touchdowns), Heisman winners need to perform well in high-pressure, nationally televised games.

One player who’s stock has skyrocketed is Alabama running back Derrick Henry. The junior has rushed for 353 yards and five touchdowns in his past two games, causing his Heisman odds to jump from +1615 to +215. In fact, Henry is actually the favorite to win the Heisman at Bovada (+150) with Leonard Fournette (+200) right on his heels.

Who do you think will take home the Heisman Trophy this season? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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