Welcome to the 2012 edition of MLB Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the MLB betting market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record: 4-4 (+1.22 units)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true line value. Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics
On Wednesday night, the Texas Rangers (33-23, 18-12 Away) and Oakland Athletics (24-32, 11-16 Home) will play the third game of a four-game set in Oakland, with Colby Lewis hurling for the Rangers and veteran Bartolo Colon on the mound for the A’s. The offenses for both clubs are vastly different in terms of production, as Texas has scored 121 more runs and 170 more hits this year than the Athletics, but both opposing pitchers have found historical success against each other’s club. Lewis went 4-0 in six starts against Oakland last year and Bartolo Colon is 12-1 in his last fourteen starts against the Rangers.
Texas opened as a -152 favorite at Pinnacle and, according to Sports Insights’ MLB Betting Trends, has received 84% of moneyline bets, 92% of parlay wagers, and 91% of runline wagers. Even with this lopsided betting, Pinnacle has moved their line from -152 to -150.
The public betting chart below is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members and shows a breakdown of moneyline Betting Percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks.
A Smart Move was triggered on the Athletics at YouWager this morning, indicating some sharp money has already come down on the home dog.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the public Betting Percentages have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
At the time of publication, BetMacho is offering the best price on the Oakland A’s at +145, but as always, be sure to shop for the best line before getting down on this game.
Game to Watch (4-4, +1.22 units)
Oakland Athletics +145 (BetMacho)
Enjoy the games!