Welcome to the 2012 edition of MLB Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the MLB betting market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record: 4-3 (+2.22 units)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true line value. Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Two of the best offenses in baseball will square off tonight when the Tigers host the Yankees. The Yankees lead baseball in home runs with 76 round-trippers on the season and are led by Curtin Granderson — who has tallied 16 homers this season and 57 since coming to New York prior to the 2011 season. Behind this impressive offensive output, the Yankees have compiled a 27-23 record. Although that puts them just 1.5 games behind the first-place Orioles, it also puts them just 1.5 games ahead of the last place Red Sox.
On the other side, the Tigers offense is more about potential than results. Detroit ranks just seventh in the AL in runs scored despite making a splash in free agency over the offseason by signing first baseman Prince Fielder to a mammoth nine-year, $214 million dollar contract.
This power outage by the Tigers offense has caused the team to massively underperform pre-season expectations. Detroit began the season with the second best odds to win the World Series (trailing just the Phillies) but find themselves in third place in the AL Central after two months with a 24-27 record.
As for tonight’s pitching matchup? Let’s just say tonight’s starters have had very different career paths. CC Sabathia (6-2, 3.66 ERA) has compiled 182 career wins, won the 2007 Cy Young Award and became the highest paid pitcher in MLB history prior to the 2009 season. Facing off against Sabathia will be fellow lefty Casey Crosby. The 23-year old will be making his first career start after posting a 4-2 record and 4.26 ERA for Triple-A Toledo.
New York opened as a -145 favorite at Pinnacle and, according to Sports Insights’ MLB Betting Trends, has received 80% of moneyline bets and 81% of runline wagers. This lopsided betting has pushed the line from -145 to -153.
The public betting chart below is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members and shows a breakdown of moneyline Betting Percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks.
A Steam Move was triggered on the Tigers at Pinnacle (+13.77 units) as well as a Smart Money move at SBG (+6.06 units), indicating sharp money has already come down on the home dog.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the public Betting Percentages have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
At the time of publication, Heritage is offering the best price on the Detroit Tigers at +149, but as always, be sure to shop for the best line before getting down on this game.
Game to Watch (4-3, +2.22 units)
Detroit Tigers +149 (Heritage)
Enjoy the games!