Manny Pacquiao/Floyd Mayweather Betting Preview

The most anticipated fight of the century takes place later today with 36-year old Manny Pacquiao (57-5-2) and 38-year old Floyd Mayweather (47-0) squaring off on Saturday night in Las Vegas. Mayweather opened as a -275 favorite at the Westgate sportsbook with Pacquiao listed at +235 while BetOnline, a prominent offshore oddsmaker, opened Mayweather as an even larger favorite at -330.

Early money pounded Pacquiao, dropping Floyd Mayweather from -275 to -240 at the Vegas-based Westgate sportsbook:

It’s interesting to note that these trends are much different than those observed at the very square oddsmaker Sportsbook.com. Mayweather opened as a -225 favorite and, according to the data available on their website, the man known as “Money” is currently receiving 62% of bets. Despite this fact, Mayweather has actually dropped down to -200 which would seem to indicate that sharp money is currently taking Pacquiao (currently +165).

We always recommend shopping for the best line, so the table below displays the current fight odds at seven major offshore sportsbooks. At the time of publication, the best line for Floyd Mayweather was available at Sports Interaction (-189) while the best line for Manny Pacquiao was available at Heritage (+200). This means that bettors with accounts at each of these sportsbooks could actually set up an easy arbitrage opportunity.

Sportsbook Floyd Mayweather Manny Pacquiao
5Dimes (4/29) -220 +180
BetOnline (4/29) -215 +185
Bovada (4/29) -225 +175
CRIS (4/29) -206 +172
Heritage (4/29) -225 +200
Pinnacle (4/29) -212 +190
Sports Interaction (4/29) -189 +165
Sportsbook.com (4/29) -200 +165

One of the more popular theories for this fight is that Pacquiao would need to knock out Mayweather in order to win since Mayweather’s quickness and elusiveness gives him the advantage if this fight goes the distance. Right now the over/under on rounds has been set at 11.5 with the over heavily juiced up across the sports betting marketplace. Most books have the over listed somewhere in the range of -300 with a high of -340 (Greek) and a low of -275 (Carib).

Although the most common bet regards whether this fight will go the full 12 rounds, bettors can actually bet a wide variety of over/under’s on the round. (Odds via Sportsbook.com)

Round Over Juice Under Juice
O/U 2.5 -5000 +1800
O/U 3.5 -4000 +1600
O/U 4.5 -1600 +900
O/U 5.5 -1400 +750
O/U 6.5 -900 +600
O/U 7.5 -600 +425
O/U 8.5 -500 +375
O/U 9.5 -400 +300
O/U 10.5 -350 +270
O/U 11.5 -340 +260

Bettors can also take Mayweather as a 6.5-point favorite over Pacquiao with a knockout for either fighter graded as a win. Other popular prop bets include:

  1. First jab or punch landed: Mayweather -120 | Pacquiao -110
  2. Hand of first jab/punch landed: Left -135 | Right +105
  3. Will there be an accidental foul which requires a referee’s time out? Yes -200 | No +165
  4. Will Either fighter be knocked down or knocked out? (includes TKO’s or disqualifications) Yes +175 | No -215
  5. Will Pacquiao knock down Mayweather? Yes +350 | No -485
  6. Will Mayweather knock down Pacquiao? Yes +300 | No -485
  7. Will both fighters be knocked down? Yes +1,600 | No -4,000
  8. Will there be at least two knockdowns? Yes +375 | No -500
  9. Will there be at least three knockdowns? Yes +550 | No -800
  10. Will either fighter have a point deducted? Yes +400 | No -550
  11. Will the fight end in a draw? Yes +1,000 | No -1,800
  12. Will Pacquiao win inside distance? Yes +494 | No -687
  13. Will Mayweather win inside distance? Yes +580 | No 860
  14. Will Pacquiao win in the first 60 seconds? Yes +15,000 | No -75,000
  15. Will Mayweather win in the first 60 seconds? Yes +15,000 | No -75,000
  16. Will there me a rematch within one year? Yes +200 | No -305

At 5Dimes bettors can also choose to bet the exact round that each fighter will win:

Manny Pacquiao

Round Win Other
1 +9500 -18000
2 +7500 -14000
3 +7000 -13000
4 +6500 -12000
5 +6000 -11000
6 +5500 -10000
7 +5000 -9000
8 +5000 -9000
9 +4500 -8000
10 +4500 -8000
11 +5000 -9000
12 +8000 -15000

Floyd Mayweather

Round Win Other
1 +9000 -17000
2 +8000 -15000
3 +7500 -14000
4 +7000 -13000
5 +7000 -13000
6 +6500 -12000
7 +5500 -10000
8 +5500 -10000
9 +5500 -10000
10 +5500 -10000
11 +6500 -12000
12 +8500 -16000

Much like the Super Bowl, this crosses the line between sporting event and must-see spectacle. With that in mind, perhaps it’s not surprising that Sports Interaction (SIA) is offering a number of additional prop bets with no relation to the actual outcome of the fight.

  1. Total purse for Floyd Mayweather: O/U 162 million
  2. Total purse for Manny Pacquiao: O/U 108 million
  3. Will there be a million dollar bet placed on Floyd Mayweather by TMT? Yes +205 | No -303
  4. Will Justin Beiber be in the right before the fight? Yes +140 | No -200
  5. Will Justin Bieber wear a hat during the walkout? Yes -180 | No +120
  6. Will 50 Cent be in the right before the fight? Yes +375| No -667
  7. Will Lil Wayne be in the right before the fight? Yes +130 | No -182
  8. Will Lil Wayne wear a shirt during the walkout? Yes -160 | +120
  9. Who will announce the fighters? Michael Buffer +300 | Jimmy Lennon Jr. +400 | Both -250
  10. Which will be higher? Floyd Mayweather share of purse +130 | Kentucky Derby Handle
  11. Jamie Foxx National Anthem time: O/U 94 seconds (Over -145)
  12. Philippine National Anthem time: O/U 76 seconds (Over -140)

We will continue to monitor these lines as the fight approaches, but we want to know what you think. Will you be watching this fight? Are there any bets that you like? Can Floyd Mayweather escape with his undefeated record intact? Please leave any thoughts or comments in the section below.

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com.

The following two tabs change content below.

David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

No Comments Permalink

Say something

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked with a grey bar.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>