Julian Edelman Injury Fallout

Julian Edelman Injury Fallout

Over the weekend the Patriots announced that one of their Super Bowl LI heroes, WR Julian Edelman, was done for the 2017 season. Edelman suffered a torn ACL in the Patriots’ third preseason game after planting his right foot to make a cut.

The 31-year-old hobbled off the field under his own power, giving Pats fans a small sense of hope, but an MRI Saturday morning confirmed their nightmares to be true.

Edelman was New England’s top receiver in 2016, catching 98 passes for 1,106 yards and three touchdowns, so his absence will certainly be a big hit to the Patriots’ offense. However, if there’s any team that can withstand such a loss, it’s the Pats.

Tom Brady will still have some of the best receiving targets in the NFL, in Brandin Cooks, Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, and Danny Amendola. Because of that depth, Edelman’s injury did not seem to hinder New England’s 2017 chances much, at least in the eyes of oddsmakers.

Patriots Future PropPre-Edelman Injury
Post-Edelman Injury
Win Total12.5 (o-130)12.5 (o+105)
Make Playoffs-1500-1500
Win AFC East-1400-1400
Make AFC Championship-175N/A
Win AFC Championship+165+165
Win Super Bowl+275+350

Other than a slight hit to their Super Bowl odds, the Patriots ridiculous preseason odds remained basically unchanged. At +350, they’re still the clear cut favorite to win their sixth Lombardi Trophy, with the next best odds belonging to the Packers and Seahawks at +1000.

The only other minor change was in their win total projection. While still at 12.5, the juice has shifted from the over to the under, making the over 12.5 a plus-money pick.

As for the Week 1 matchup vs. Kansas City, the impact of Edelman’s loss is a bit more unclear. After opening as -7 favorites, the Pats are now anywhere from -8 to -9 depending on the sportsbook. Most books didn’t change their lines following Edelman’s injury, but with Kansas City’s top running back Spencer Ware also going down with a potential season ending injury, it’s possible that the two canceled each other out, making it difficult to put a point-value on Edelman.

Do you think oddsmakers reacted appropriately? Should their loss of the top receiver have more of an impact on the defending Super Bowl champs? Feel free to leave your take in the comment section.

Danny Donahue

If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am gonna be a very rich dude. @dannyjdonahue on Twitter

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