Historical Super Bowl Trends

Super Bowl XLIX kicks off on Sunday, February 1st at 6:30 PM when the New England Patriots face off against the defending champion Seattle Seahawks. New England opened as a 3-point underdog but, at the time of publication, was receiving 77% of spread bets. This one-sided public betting has pushed the game to a pick ’em and represents many firsts for Super Bowl betting.

Over the past decade, only one team has received more than 55% of spread bets — the Denver Broncos who received 68% of spread bets in last year’s matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. As usual, the public’s perception was entirely wrong and the ‘Hawks won in dominant fashion, dispatching Peyton Manning and company by a final score of 43-8.

The table below, using lines from Pinnacle and public betting percentages from our seven contributing sportsbooks, displays historical Super Bowl trends for the past 11 years. Readers can see all of the data by utilizing the scroll bar at the bottom of the table.

Super Bowl Favorite Underdog Opening Line Closing Line Fav Betting % Opening Total Closing Total Over % Score
XLIX Seattle Seahawks New England Patriots SEA -2.5 Pick 'Em 24% 49 48 62% N/A
XLVIII Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks SEA -1 DEN -1.5 68% 47.5 47 46% SEA 43, DEN 8
XLVII San Francisco 49ers Baltimore Ravens SF -5 SF -4.5 44% 48.5 47.5 56% BAL 34, SF 31
XLVI New England Patriots New York Giants NE -3.5 NE -3 47% 54 53 49% NY 21, NE 17
XLV Green Bay Packers Pittsburgh Steelers Pick 'Em GB -3 49% 44 44.5 66% GB 31, PIT 25
XLIV Indianapolis Colts New Orleans Saints IND -3.5 IND -4.5 53% 56 56.5 65% NO 31, IND 17
XLIII Pittsburgh Steelers Arizona Cardinals PIT -6.5 PIT -6.5 44% 47 46.5 59% PIT 27, ARI 23
XLII New England Patriots New York Giants NE -14 NE -12.5 40% 55 54.5 58% NY 17, NE 14
XLI Indianapolis Colts Chicago Bears IND -6 IND -6.5 49% 48.5 47 59% IND 29, CHI 17
XL Pittsburgh Steelers Seattle Seahawks PIT -3 PIT -4 49% 46.5 46.5 53% PIT 21, SEA 10
XXXIX New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles NE -6 NE -7 55% 44 47 50% NE 24, PHI 21
XXXVIII New England Patriots Carolina Panthers NE -6.5 NE -7 44% 38 37.5 48% NE 32, CAR 29

Not including this year’s game, on average the favorite has received 49.27% of spread bets which highlights how evenly Super Bowl betting tends to be. Typically bettors tend to prefer pounding favorites and overs, but often times small spreads lead to more evenly bet games.

Bettors also prefer high-scoring games, and that trend does seem to continue during the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. Ever since Super Bowl XXXVIII, on average 55.36% of bettors take the over.

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David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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