Historical Super Bowl Trends

Historical Super Bowl Trends

Super Bowl XLIX kicks off on Sunday, February 1st at 6:30 PM when the New England Patriots face off against the defending champion Seattle Seahawks. New England opened as a 3-point underdog but, at the time of publication, was receiving 77% of spread bets. This one-sided public betting has pushed the game to a pick ’em and represents many firsts for Super Bowl betting.

Over the past decade, only one team has received more than 55% of spread bets — the Denver Broncos who received 68% of spread bets in last year’s matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. As usual, the public’s perception was entirely wrong and the ‘Hawks won in dominant fashion, dispatching Peyton Manning and company by a final score of 43-8.

The table below, using lines from Pinnacle and public betting percentages from our seven contributing sportsbooks, displays historical Super Bowl trends for the past 11 years. Readers can see all of the data by utilizing the scroll bar at the bottom of the table.

Super BowlFavoriteUnderdogOpening LineClosing LineFav Betting %Opening TotalClosing TotalOver %Score
XLIXSeattle SeahawksNew England PatriotsSEA -2.5Pick 'Em24%494862%N/A
XLVIIIDenver BroncosSeattle SeahawksSEA -1DEN -1.568%47.54746%SEA 43, DEN 8
XLVIISan Francisco 49ersBaltimore RavensSF -5SF -4.544%48.547.556%BAL 34, SF 31
XLVINew England PatriotsNew York GiantsNE -3.5NE -347%545349%NY 21, NE 17
XLVGreen Bay PackersPittsburgh SteelersPick 'EmGB -349%4444.566%GB 31, PIT 25
XLIVIndianapolis ColtsNew Orleans SaintsIND -3.5IND -4.553%5656.565%NO 31, IND 17
XLIIIPittsburgh SteelersArizona CardinalsPIT -6.5PIT -6.544%4746.559%PIT 27, ARI 23
XLIINew England PatriotsNew York GiantsNE -14NE -12.540%5554.558%NY 17, NE 14
XLIIndianapolis ColtsChicago BearsIND -6IND -6.549%48.54759%IND 29, CHI 17
XLPittsburgh SteelersSeattle SeahawksPIT -3PIT -449%46.546.553%PIT 21, SEA 10
XXXIXNew England PatriotsPhiladelphia EaglesNE -6NE -755%444750%NE 24, PHI 21
XXXVIIINew England PatriotsCarolina PanthersNE -6.5NE -744%3837.548%NE 32, CAR 29

Not including this year’s game, on average the favorite has received 49.27% of spread bets which highlights how evenly Super Bowl betting tends to be. Typically bettors tend to prefer pounding favorites and overs, but often times small spreads lead to more evenly bet games.

Bettors also prefer high-scoring games, and that trend does seem to continue during the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. Ever since Super Bowl XXXVIII, on average 55.36% of bettors take the over.

Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Make sure to utilize our live chat or call us directly at 877-838-2853.

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.

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