Do College Football Underdogs Have More Value on Weeknights?
In College Football, there is typically a slight bias towards underdogs. According to our BetLabs software, since 2005 dogs have a winning record of 2810-2774 (50.3%) although betting every game would results in a loss of 97.84 units and a -1.8% return on investment (ROI). However, our research indicates that underdogs have vastly more value in midweek games.
The table below, using line data from Pinnacle, shows the performance of dogs when the game is played between Monday and Friday.
|Filter||Record||Units Earned||Return on Investment|
|Dogs of 3.5 to 10.5||190-144||+34.64||10.4%|
As you can see, betting the underdog during the week would result in modest gains, however, when we look at small dogs of between 3.5 and 10.5 points, the return on investment soars to 10.4%.
There are a number of midweek games on tap, including tonight’s showdown between UL Lafayette and North Texas. Currently, North Texas is receiving just 20% of spread wagers as a 3.5-point underdog meaning this is a clear-cut game to watch.
Other games of interest include a pair of Thursday night matchups with Arizona State (+9.5) at home against #3 Oregon and SMU (+6) hosting Houston.
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