Clemson, West Virginia Most Overrated in NCAAF AP Top 25

Clemson, West Virginia Most Overrated in NCAAF AP Top 25

Results for the 2017 preseason AP Top 25 College Football poll have been released and perennial powers Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State, USC and Clemson make up the top five positions. While mainstream sports media leans on these rankings as a projected measure of strength, betting odds provide a better window into how oddsmakers view these teams and how the betting market values them heading into the 2017-18 season.

The table below offers odds to win the National Championship and to make the 4-Team Playoff for each team included in the AP Top 25 Poll.

AP RankTeamChampionship
Odds
Playoff
Odds
1Alabama+245-195
2Ohio State+800+140
3Florida State+975+150
4USC+775+145
5Clemson+3600+700
6Penn State+2200+450
7Oklahoma+1800+250
8Washington+2350+425
9Wisconsin+4000+725
10Oklahoma State+4250+800
11Michigan+2700+500
12Auburn+2000+500
13LSU+2000+450
14Stanford+11000+1600
15Georgia +3500+825
16Louisville+5300+1000
17FloridaOTB+850
18Miami (FL)+8000+1200
19South Florida+12500+3000
20Kansas State+12000+1600
21Virginia Tech+9000+1400
22West Virginia +40000+7000
23Texas+5000+850
24Washington State+16000+1900
25Tennessee+10300+1500

*Odds via 5Dimes

Within the Top 5, Clemson is clearly the most overrated considering their +3600 odds to repeat as national champs and +700 just to qualify for the playoff. In comparison, LSU is listed at +2000 and +450 respectively, and didn’t crack the AP’s Top 10.

West Virginia also sticks out as a team extremely overvalued by AP voters, highlighted by +40000 National Championship odds and a price of +7000 just to make the 2018 College Football Playoff. In addition, we published a post on fading trendy college football win totals earlier this month that highlighted “sharper and bigger money is on WVU to go Under 7 wins this season”.

What are you thoughts on the preseason Top 25? We invite to leave your opinions on both the most overrated and underrated teams in the comments section below.

 

 

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