Betting Nuggets for Broncos-Colts
I’ll admit that this year’s Thursday Night Football slate was better than what we’ve seen in the past. It started off with a bang when the Chiefs upset the Patriots on opening night, but we also saw a wild shootout between the Rams and 49ers, a crazy ending between the Chiefs and Raiders, and last week’s NFC South showdown between the Saints and Falcons.
On the season, Thursday favorites have gone 8-7-1 ATS, home teams have gone 9-6-1 ATS, and teams getting less than 50% of bets have gone 9-5-1 ATS. Historically, favorites have had a much larger edge coming off the short week going 96-66-5 ATS, while home teams have gone 87-74-5 ATS, and teams getting the minority of bets have gone just 77-84-3 ATS.
God forbid we end this season’s Color Rush schedule on a high note, as two teams with a combined winning percentage of .269 face off tonight at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Broncos opened at the ever-boring number of -1.5, but have seen their line move thanks to steady action throughout the week.
After finally winning (and covering) a game following eight consecutive losses straight-up and against-the-spread, bettors are right back on the Buckin’ Broncos. They’re receiving right around 60% of both bets and dollars and have moved to either -2.5 or -3 across the market.
Should those folks be worried, though? As Dan McGuire notes, Denver will be without one of their best defensive weapons, safety Justin Simmons, for the remainder of the season. This could potentially lead to some big plays from Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton, the latter of which has been held to just 51 yards or less in each of the past four games.
Could that mean more points? It sure could. As P.J. Walsh noted in the company Slack channel, he’ll be sweating out the ‘over’ tonight.
So far, bets are relatively split, but close to 60% of the dollars have been on the ‘under’ which has caused the total to drop from 41.5 to 40.5. With the total now below 41, we could see some buyback on the ‘over’ before game time.
Not the most interesting game, but what can you do? Watch some Christmas movies instead.