2017 NFL Kick Off: Patriots vs. Chiefs Betting Guide

2017 NFL Kick Off: Patriots vs. Chiefs Betting Guide

At last, the NFL is back, baby! The only downside is that we won’t be seeing the color rush uni’s tonight…damn shame.

Gillette Stadium will be full of Goodell clown towels tonight as the reigning Super Bowl champion Patriots host the Chiefs. Lines have been out on this game for quite some time now so many bettors have had cash down for weeks, possibly months.

Back in April (yes, April), the Pats opened as a touchdown favorite with a total of 50 at the Westgate Superbook in Vegas. Other sportsbooks followed suit in the weeks that followed, with the Pats opening at -7 or -7.5 around the market.

This offseason, the Patriots did pretty darn well for themselves and the market reacted accordingly. The hype has been real this offseason and based on futures odds, the Patriots are the best team EVER  heading into the season. With that being said, the Pats line was on the up and up over the summer.

From -7, to -7.5, to -8, and so on. Pats, Pats, Pats.

Earlier in the week, the Patriots topped out at -10 at several books around the market. Bettors looking to fade the Pats, who are currently getting 65% of bets from our seven contributing books, pounced on the chance to bet the Chiefs at that number.

We’ve seen some serious buyback over the past day, with the Pats moving from -10 to -8 at Pinnacle and -9 to -8 at Bookmaker, two of the sharpest offshore books.

There has also been some serious action on the under. Just a couple of days ago, the total was 48.5 at Bookmaker and the over was seeing close to 70% of the money. Since then, the line has dropped to 47 and money is almost split.

Though there will surely be a large flow of public bets coming in on the Patriots tonight, I don’t see the spread returning to 9/10 at sharp books.

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Mark Gallant

I'm the guy who does his job. You must be the other guy.

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