2017 NBA Draft Betting Recap

2017 NBA Draft Betting Recap

The top two picks in the 2017 NBA Draft were essential locks in Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball, but there was plenty of shakeup from #3 on. Chicago also ended up trading Jimmy Butler to Minnesota early in the draft. Below I’ve recapped the entire NBA Draft from a betting perspective.

1. Markelle Fultz – Philadelphia 76ers (from Brooklyn via Boston)
Fultz was -300 on May 17th to go first overall, and was -8000 before the draft.

2. Lonzo Ball – Los Angeles Lakers
Ball was available at -240 to be picked by LAL just a few days ago, and was -1600 right before the draft.

3. Jayson Tatum – Boston Celtics (from Sacramento via Philadelphia)
Early in the week, Tatum was a +160 underdog to go Top-4 but things clearly changed during the week as he passed Jackson on the Celtics’ draft board.

4. Josh Jackson – Phoenix Suns
The Suns didn’t let Jackson slip any further, and was the +125 favorite to be selected at #4 on draft day. However, he was favored to go #3 to the Celtics early in the week.

5. De’Aaron Fox – Sacramento Kings (from Philadelphia)
Fox’s O/U draft position moved around from 4.5 to 5 by draft day, so late bettors weren’t able to capitalize. Fox was -200 on draft day to go #5 overall, so no shock here.

6. Jonathan Isaac – Orlando Magic
Isaac’s O/U draft position was consistent at 6.5 but the juice kept moving on the Under. This was right on as Isaac went #6 overall to the Magic.

7. Lauri Markkanen – Minnesota Timberwolves (traded to Chicago Bulls)
Markkanen’s O/U draft position opened at 7.5 and moved to 9.5 by draft day, but still went Under both numbers.

8. Frank Ntilikina – New York Knicks
Ntilikina from France was -1600 to be the first International player selected and that easily hit.

9. Dennis Smith Jr. – Dallas Mavericks
Some people seemed surprised to see Smith fall to #9, but his O/U draft position was 8.5 so this made sense.

10. Zach Collins – Sacramento Kings (from New Orleans, traded to Portland Trail Blazers)
Collins was -155 to go in the Top-10 and just made it, going #10 to Portland.

Here were the betting O/U’s before the draft:
Freshman 16.5 (U-145)
Sophomore 6.5 (U-115)
Junior 2.5 (U-135)
Senior 0.5 (O-205)
Int’l 3.5 (U-195)

And the actual 1st round results:
16 Freshmen (Under)
6 Sophomores (Under)
3 Juniors (Over)
2 Seniors (Over)
3 Internationals (Under)

There were 3 Kentucky players selected in the first 14 picks (Fox #5, Monk #11, Adebayo #14), meaning Over 2.5 Kentucky players cashed. The juice on the Over 2.5 moved from -300 to -1000 by draft day.

Adebayo going #14 also meant that Kentucky was the first school to get three players drafted:

The O/U for Duke players drafted in the 1st round was 3.5, and the Over almost hit but Frank Jackson went #31 overall.

The O/U for UCLA players drafted in the 1st round was 2.5 (o-400), but Ike Anigbogu fell all the way to #47 overall, meaning the Under 2.5 (+250) hit.

The O/U for Gonzaga players drafted overall was 1.5 (o+110), and the Over hit when Nigel Williams-Goss went #55 to the Utah Jazz.

The O/U for Kansas players drafted overall was 1.5 (o-240), and the Over hit easily when Frank Mason III went #34 overall.

The O/U for Oregon players drafted overall was 2.5 (o-300), and all three Oregon picks went between #38 and #45, meaning the Over easily hit.

DJ Wilson’s stock was improving all week, as his O/U draft position moved from 25 to 23.5 by draft day, and he went #17 overall to Milwaukee.

Sindarius Thornwell opened with an O/U position of 38.5 and moved to 47.5 by draft day. He went #48 overall to Milwaukee (traded to LAC).

Derrick White was the first senior selected, going #29 overall to the Spurs. We mentioned last week on Twitter that the Spurs were interested in another senior, Josh Hart, who went #30. At the time, the odds of a senior going in the 1st round was +130, but had moved to -210 by draft day.

Title odds haven’t moved for any teams due to draft picks, but the TWolves’ trade for Jimmy Butler improved their odds from 100:1 to 60:1 at Westgate, and from 185:1 to 65:1 at Bookmaker. Chicago moved from 100:1 to 200:1 following the move.


Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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