2017 NBA Draft Betting Recap

The top two picks in the 2017 NBA Draft were essential locks in Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball, but there was plenty of shakeup from #3 on. Chicago also ended up trading Jimmy Butler to Minnesota early in the draft. Below I’ve recapped the entire NBA Draft from a betting perspective.

1. Markelle Fultz – Philadelphia 76ers (from Brooklyn via Boston)
Fultz was -300 on May 17th to go first overall, and was -8000 before the draft.

2. Lonzo Ball – Los Angeles Lakers
Ball was available at -240 to be picked by LAL just a few days ago, and was -1600 right before the draft.

3. Jayson Tatum – Boston Celtics (from Sacramento via Philadelphia)
Early in the week, Tatum was a +160 underdog to go Top-4 but things clearly changed during the week as he passed Jackson on the Celtics’ draft board.

4. Josh Jackson – Phoenix Suns
The Suns didn’t let Jackson slip any further, and was the +125 favorite to be selected at #4 on draft day. However, he was favored to go #3 to the Celtics early in the week.

5. De’Aaron Fox – Sacramento Kings (from Philadelphia)
Fox’s O/U draft position moved around from 4.5 to 5 by draft day, so late bettors weren’t able to capitalize. Fox was -200 on draft day to go #5 overall, so no shock here.

6. Jonathan Isaac – Orlando Magic
Isaac’s O/U draft position was consistent at 6.5 but the juice kept moving on the Under. This was right on as Isaac went #6 overall to the Magic.

7. Lauri Markkanen – Minnesota Timberwolves (traded to Chicago Bulls)
Markkanen’s O/U draft position opened at 7.5 and moved to 9.5 by draft day, but still went Under both numbers.

8. Frank Ntilikina – New York Knicks
Ntilikina from France was -1600 to be the first International player selected and that easily hit.

9. Dennis Smith Jr. – Dallas Mavericks
Some people seemed surprised to see Smith fall to #9, but his O/U draft position was 8.5 so this made sense.

10. Zach Collins – Sacramento Kings (from New Orleans, traded to Portland Trail Blazers)
Collins was -155 to go in the Top-10 and just made it, going #10 to Portland.

Here were the betting O/U’s before the draft:
Freshman 16.5 (U-145)
Sophomore 6.5 (U-115)
Junior 2.5 (U-135)
Senior 0.5 (O-205)
Int’l 3.5 (U-195)

And the actual 1st round results:
16 Freshmen (Under)
6 Sophomores (Under)
3 Juniors (Over)
2 Seniors (Over)
3 Internationals (Under)

There were 3 Kentucky players selected in the first 14 picks (Fox #5, Monk #11, Adebayo #14), meaning Over 2.5 Kentucky players cashed. The juice on the Over 2.5 moved from -300 to -1000 by draft day.

Adebayo going #14 also meant that Kentucky was the first school to get three players drafted:

The O/U for Duke players drafted in the 1st round was 3.5, and the Over almost hit but Frank Jackson went #31 overall.

The O/U for UCLA players drafted in the 1st round was 2.5 (o-400), but Ike Anigbogu fell all the way to #47 overall, meaning the Under 2.5 (+250) hit.

The O/U for Gonzaga players drafted overall was 1.5 (o+110), and the Over hit when Nigel Williams-Goss went #55 to the Utah Jazz.

The O/U for Kansas players drafted overall was 1.5 (o-240), and the Over hit easily when Frank Mason III went #34 overall.

The O/U for Oregon players drafted overall was 2.5 (o-300), and all three Oregon picks went between #38 and #45, meaning the Over easily hit.

DJ Wilson’s stock was improving all week, as his O/U draft position moved from 25 to 23.5 by draft day, and he went #17 overall to Milwaukee.

Sindarius Thornwell opened with an O/U position of 38.5 and moved to 47.5 by draft day. He went #48 overall to Milwaukee (traded to LAC).

Derrick White was the first senior selected, going #29 overall to the Spurs. We mentioned last week on Twitter that the Spurs were interested in another senior, Josh Hart, who went #30. At the time, the odds of a senior going in the 1st round was +130, but had moved to -210 by draft day.

Title odds haven’t moved for any teams due to draft picks, but the TWolves’ trade for Jimmy Butler improved their odds from 100:1 to 60:1 at Westgate, and from 185:1 to 65:1 at Bookmaker. Chicago moved from 100:1 to 200:1 following the move.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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