2017 Gold Cup Semifinal Preview

2017 Gold Cup Semifinal Preview

The 2017 Gold Cup hasn’t sprung many surprises and the semifinal features the top three favorites heading into the tournament. On Saturday night, Costa Rica will play USA and on Sunday night Mexico will take on Jamaica. Here are the opening odds and betting breakdown for each matchup:

USA vs. Costa Rica (10 pm ET Saturday at Arlington, TX)
USA -104
Costa Rica +260
Draw +200

USA opened -104 but have since moved to +106. Costa Rica opened +260 but now have much better odds at +331. The draw opened very short at +200 and has moved to +229. Clearly 5Dimes opened unfavorable odds and bettors were smart to wait until the 3-way moneyline was adjusted.

Just over 60% of early bettors are taking USA which isn’t too lopsided considering their probability of winning is about 50%. Costa Rica is a very solid team and attracting 25% of moneyline tickets, pretty much what we’d expect for a +331 underdog. As usual the draw is being slightly overlooked with ~10% of tickets at +229 odds.

This match is particularly intriguing as Costa Rica beat USA 4-0 back in a World Cup qualifier in November. That match essentially put the finishing touch on getting manager Jurgen Klinsmann fired. Now Bruce Arena is at the helm for a second stint as manager, and he hasn’t lost a game yet (6W, 5D, 0L). This will be one of the bigger tests and USA will be seeking revenge on Los Ticos, but I’m not convinced they win within 90 minutes.

You can also bet on either team to simply advance to the final. USA opened -175 but now -200. Costa Rica opened +155 but are now available at +170 to advance. Despite many injury concerns for Costa Rica, +170 is a pretty good price to get.

Mexico vs. Jamaica (Sunday 9 pm ET at Pasadena, CA)
Mexico -189
Jamaica +706
Draw +307

Jamaica gave us a little bit of an upset by beating Canada in the quarterfinals, and they’ll have to pull off a bigger one to take out Mexico in the semifinals. Mexico will have an advantage of crowd support but I wouldn’t feel comfortable laying -189 the way they’ve played this tournament. In early betting, they’re getting about 75% of tickets with Jamaica and the Draw both getting about 13% apiece. There were no draws in any of the quarterfinal matches despite three of the games being very even, but there were five draws in the group stages, including a 0-0 stalemate between these teams. I’d lean toward another close game here so a better bet may be taking Jamaica +1 (-120) on the goal line.

Here’s a look at odds to win the tournament:

CountryJuly 21July 6June 29
USA+120+160+160
Mexico+130+130+130
Costa Rica+400+600+700
Jamaica+1600+3500+3500
HondurasN/A+3300+3500
MartiniqueN/A+25000+25000
PanamaN/A+2000+1800
NicaraguaN/A+15000+15000
El SalvadorN/A+15000+15000
CuracaoN/A+15000+15000
French GuyanaN/A+25000+20000
CanadaN/A+4500+5000

USA have leapfrogged Mexico despite having a much tougher semifinal matchup. I still feel pretty good about my Costa Rica bet to win it all at +725 odds, and probably won’t hedge if they reach the final.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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