Villanova barely escaped Seton Hall in the semifinals but got a big late hoop by Josh Hart to seal the 55-53 victory. Creighton took care of business as small favorites against Xavier, but have opened as big underdogs in the Finals against Villanova. Nova was available at -140 to win the tournament while Creighton was +750.
CRIS opened Villanova at a juiced -8.5 but quickly moved to -9 and -9.5 this morning. However, Pinnacle and 5Dimes opened Villanova -9.5 and dropped to -9. While it looked like there may have been sharper money on Creighton, the line is back up to -10 around the market. The majority of tickets has come in on the Wildcats (60%) but nothing too lopsided.
The critical action in this game as actually been on the total. CRIS and Pinnacle opened 145.5 but have already dropped to 141. The majority of O/U tickets has been on the Over (58%) so clearly sharp money has been pounding the Under. Here’s a look at the Over/Under line graph at Pinnacle since opening:
Unders in Conference Finals have been very profitable especially when the public tickets are going the other way. Savvy and sharp bettors know this, and will quickly drive these totals down when they open.
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