Throughout this offseason we have posted the odds for various players to lead the league in passing, rushing, receiving, tackles and sacks. These props typically have low limits and a high theoretical hold percentage, which can make it very difficult to find players offering value. That said, it does provide insight into the expectations of oddsmakers. This information can also be very useful for fantasy football managers who looking for players who are being under ranked by the draft experts.
Earlier this week, the prominent offshore sportsbook 5Dimes posted odds for 60 different players to lead the league in total touchdowns. For those who are unfamiliar, this category excludes quarterbacks and focuses the combination of rushing and receiving touchdowns.
The table below displays the current odds at 5Dimes and will be updated throughout the offseason.
Last season there was a four-way tie between Brandon Marshall, Doug Baldwin, Allen Robinson and Devonta Freeman for the league leader in total touchdowns. These type of props usually have dead heat rules, which means any bettor who took one of these four plays would have received a quarter of the potential payout. Baldwin, Robinson and Freeman weren’t listed as candidates last season, but Marshall was available at 80/1. Based on the dead heat rules, anybody who took Marshall would have been paid out at 20/1.
It’s also interesting to see that David Johnson (+650) is listed as the preseason favorite since he only has five career starts under his belt. Johnson was impressive during his rookie season (581 rushing yards, 457 receiving yards, 12 rush+rec sptouchdowns), but Adrian Peterson (+700) is a much more proven commodity.
In terms of potential value, I like Jeremy Hill at +6000. After a breakthrough season in 2014, Hill was a massive disappointment with just 794 yards and a 3.6 yard per carry average in 2015. Despite those struggles, the 23-year old managed 12 touchdowns and looks poised for a bounce back season. This is a great buy-low candidate who should receive plenty of goal line carries this season.
Who do you think will lead the league in total touchdowns? Are there any sleepers offering value? Should David Johnson really be the favorite? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.
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