2016 NFL Betting: Who Will Lead the League in Touchdowns?

Throughout this offseason we have posted the odds for various players to lead the league in passing, rushing, receiving, tackles and sacks. These props typically have low limits and a high theoretical hold percentage, which can make it very difficult to find players offering value. That said, it does provide insight into the expectations of oddsmakers. This information can also be very useful for fantasy football managers who looking for players who are being under ranked by the draft experts.

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Earlier this week, the prominent offshore sportsbook 5Dimes posted odds for 60 different players to lead the league in total touchdowns. For those who are unfamiliar, this category excludes quarterbacks and focuses the combination of rushing and receiving touchdowns.

The table below displays the current odds at 5Dimes and will be updated throughout the offseason.

Player 5Dimes (8/23)
David Johnson   +650
Adrian Peterson   +700
Antonio Brown   +900
Ezekial Elliot   +900
Todd Gurley   +1000
Odell Beckham   +1200
Rob Gronkowski   +1300
Jamaal Charles   +1500
DeAndre Hopkins   +1800
Dez Bryant   +1800
Lamar Miller   +1800
Julio Jones   +2000
AJ Green   +2800
Devonta Freeman   +3000
Thomas Rawls   +3000
Allen Robinson   +4000
Eddie Lacy   +4000
LeSean McCoy   +4000
LeVeon Bell   +4000
Mark Ingram   +4000
Alshon Jeffery   +5000
Brandon Marshall   +5000
Doug Martin   +5000
Jordy Nelson   +5000
Jeremy Hill   +6000
Mike Evans   +6000
Sammy Watkins   +6000
Amari Cooper   +7000
Brandin Cooks   +7000
Doug Baldwin   +7000
CJ Anderson   +8000
Jordan Reed   +8000
Keenan Allen   +8000
TY Hilton   +8000
Kelvin Benjamin   +9000
Randall Cobb   +9000
Carlos Hyde   +10000
Jonathan Stewart   +10000
Julian Edelman   +10000
Larry Fitzgerald   +10000
Matt Forte   +10000
Demaryius Thomas   +12500
Greg Olsen   +12500
Jeremy Maclin   +12500
Cam Newton   +15000
DeSean Jackson   +15000
Eric Decker   +15000
Golden Tate   +15000
Jarvis Landry   +15000
John Brown   +15000
Latavarius Murray   +15000
LeGarrette Blount   +15000
Ryan Mathews   +15000
Stefon Diggs   +15000
Coby Fleener   +20000
DeVante Parker   +20000
Jared Cook   +20000
Jeremy Langford   +20000
Donte Moncrief   +25000
Gary Barnidge   +30000

Last season there was a four-way tie between Brandon Marshall, Doug Baldwin, Allen Robinson and Devonta Freeman for the league leader in total touchdowns. These type of props usually have dead heat rules, which means any bettor who took one of these four plays would have received a quarter of the potential payout. Baldwin, Robinson and Freeman weren’t listed as candidates last season, but Marshall was available at 80/1. Based on the dead heat rules, anybody who took Marshall would have been paid out at 20/1.

It’s also interesting to see that David Johnson (+650) is listed as the preseason favorite since he only has five career starts under his belt. Johnson was impressive during his rookie season (581 rushing yards, 457 receiving yards, 12 rush+rec sptouchdowns), but Adrian Peterson (+700) is a much more proven commodity.

In terms of potential value, I like Jeremy Hill at +6000. After a breakthrough season in 2014, Hill was a massive disappointment with just 794 yards and a 3.6 yard per carry average in 2015. Despite those struggles, the 23-year old managed 12 touchdowns and looks poised for a bounce back season. This is a great buy-low candidate who should receive plenty of goal line carries this season.

Who do you think will lead the league in total touchdowns? Are there any sleepers offering value? Should David Johnson really be the favorite? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

Looking to track the latest odds, public betting trends, and injury updates? Make sure to visit our free NFL odds page.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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