2016 NBA Mock Draft and Prop Bets

Following the conclusion of the NBA Draft Lottery on May 17, I released our annual oddsmakers mock draft based on prop bets posted at two offshore sportsbooks. Although there were very few draft props available two months ago, I was able to create a rudimentary mock draft for the top six picks. At the time, Ben Simmons was only -160 to be selected with the first overall pick which I believed to be an excellent value.

In the ensuing weeks, those odds ballooned from -160 to -700 with many sportsbooks taking the prop off the board entirely. On Tuesday afternoon, it was confirmed that the Philadelphia 76ers would be selecting Simmons despite lingering questions about fit.

This was an interesting development considering that a wealth of prop bets had been released just moments earlier. These new prop bets provided excellent insight and allowed our mock draft to be expanded from six picks to fourteen. Additionally, there were several prop bets involving well-known collegiate athletes that aren’t expected to be drafted in the lottery on Thursday.

The table below displays our latest mock draft along with the projections from NBA Draft experts.

Team Oddsmakers (6/23) Draft Express (6/23) Chad Ford (6/23) NBADraft.net (6/23)
1. Philadelphia 76ers Ben Simmons Ben Simmons Ben Simmons Ben Simmons
2. Los Angeles Lakers Brandon Ingram Brandon Ingram Brandon Ingram Brandon Ingram
3. Boston Celtics Kris Dunn Kris Dunn Kris Dunn Kris Dunn
4. Phoenix Suns Marquese Chriss Marquese Chriss Marquese Chriss Jaylen Brown
5. Minnesota T'Wolves Jamal Murray Buddy Hield Jamal Murray Jamal Murray
6. New Orleans Pelicans Buddy Hield Jamal Murray Buddy Hield Buddy Hield
7. Denver Nuggets Dragan Bender Dragan Bender Dragan Bender Dragan Bender
8. Sacramento Kings Jaylen Brown Jaylen Brown Jaylen Brown Domantas Sabonis
9. Toronto Raptors Jakob Poeltl Jakob Poeltl Jakob Poeltl Marquese Chriss
10. Milwaukee Bucks Domantas Sabonis Deyonta Davis Deyonta Davis Deyonta Davis
11. Orlando Magic Deyonta Davis Domantas Sabonis Domantas Sabonis Skal Labissiere
12. Atlanta Hawks Henry Ellenson Malik Beasley Henry Ellenson Furkan Korkmaz
13. Phoenix Suns Skal Labissiere Timothe Luwawu Dejounte Murray Henry Ellenson
14. Chicago Bulls Furkan Korkmaz Denzel Valentine Denzel Valentine Malik Beasley

The odds of Ben Simmons being selected 1st and Brandon Ingram being selected 2nd were listed at -1000, before that prop was taken off the board. That made the first two picks exceptionally easy to project. The following three picks were based on recently posted prop bets at BetOnline.

Even though Providence guard Kris Dunn still refuses to work out for the Celtics, he’s listed as the -120 favorite to be selected with the third overall pick. That price likely accounts for the possibility that Boston will trade their top pick. Recent rumors indicate that the Philadelphia 76ers are enamored with Dunn and have offered either Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel in exchange for number three. In fact, most of the teams trying to trade up are reportedly looking to select Dunn.

If Boston opts to keep this pick, I don’t think Dunn would be the selection. The Celtics have several needs including shooting, athleticism and a shot-blocking big man — Dunn doesn’t answer any of those concerns. Boston already has a stable of talented young point guards including Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley and Terry Rozier. Personally, I believe Jaylen Brown (+325) is the much better value. I’m also very surprised that Kentucky’s Jamal Murray isn’t listed as an option.

Looking at the fourth overall pick, it’s obvious that the Suns have a glaring void in their front court after trading Markieff Morris to the Wizards. Perhaps that explains why oddsmakers expect them to take 6’10” forward Marquese Chriss. Although his collegiate numbers aren’t overwhelming (13.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG in one season at Washington), Chriss has the type of length and athleticism that general managers salivate over. He’s the ultimate boom or bust pick, but teams will be willing to swing for the faces given the perceived lack of talent in this year’s draft class.

The odds for the fifth overall pick are intriguing because Kris Dunn (+150) is also the favorite to be selected by the Minnesota Timberwolves. Basically, it seems like if the Celtics trade their pick to the 76ers, Dunn will be selected with the number three pick. If the Celtics opt to keep their pick, Dunn could potentially slip to number five.

According to ESPN’s Chad Ford, “If Dunn is there, I think he is the choice for the Wolves. However, if he’s off the board, Murray’s shooting and ability to play both the 1 and the 2 give them a versatile, go-to scorer to put alongside Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine.”


Who gets picked first? (5Dimes)
Kris Dunn (moved from -185 to -350) vs. Marquese Chriss (moved from +145 to +250)
Dragan Bender (moved from -135 to -105) vs. Jaylen Brown (moved from -105 to -135)
Demetrius Johnson (moved from -245 to -145) vs. Brice Johnson (moved from +175 to +105)

Who gets picked first? (BetOnline)
Jamal Murray (moved from -170 to -240) vs. Buddy Hield (moved from +140 to +190)
Jaylen Brown (moved from -150 to -115) vs. Dragan Bender (moved from +130 to -115)
Brice Johnson (-150) vs. Demetrius Jackson (+120)

Who gets picked first? (Ladbrokes)
Buddy Hield (-115) vs. Kris Dunn (-115)
Marquese Chriss (-165) vs. Dragan Bender (+125)

Who gets picked first? (SBO)
Kris Dunn (-250) vs. Marquese Chriss (+190)
Jamal Murray (-230) vs. Buddy Hield (+170)
Dragan Bender (-120) vs. Jaylen Brown (-110)

Who gets picked first? (Sportsbook.com)
Kris Dunn (-185) vs. Marquese Chriss (+140)
Jamal Murray (-245) vs. Buddy Hield (+175)
Jaylen Brown (-120) vs. Dragan Bender (-120)
Demetrius Jackson (-245) vs. Brice Johnson (+175)
Henry Ellenson (-270) vs. Wade Baldwin (+190)

How many international players will be drafted in Round 1? (BetOnline)
Over 13.5 (+100) vs. Under 13.5 (-130)

Which of these players will be selected the earliest? (BetOnline)
Jakob Poeltl (+100)
Domantas Sabonis (+250)
Deyonta Davis (+450)
Henry Ellenson (+600)
Skal Labissiere (+900)

Which of these players will be selected the earliest? (TopBet)
Jamal Murray (moved from +160 to +170)
Kris Dunn (moved from +240 to +180)
Dragan Bender (moved from +220 to +250)
Buddy Hield (moved from +400 to +450)

Draft Position Over/Under (5Dimes)
Dragan Bender 5.5 (Over -190)
Jaylen Brown 8.5 (Under -400)
Jakob Poeltl 9.5 (Over -175)
Domantas Sabonis 11.5 (Over –175)
Malachi Richardson 17.5 (Under -260)
Denzel Valentine 18.5 (Over -120)
Gary Payton Jr. 45.5 (Under -165)

Draft Position Over/Under (BetFair)
Jamal Murray 3.5 (Under -175)
Kris Dunn 4.5 (Under -140)
Dragan Bender 4.5 (Over -140)
Marquese Chriss 6.5 (Under -150)
Jaylen Brown 8.5 (Under -140)
Henry Ellenson 9.5 (Over -120)
Skal Labissiere 12.5 (Over -140)
Furkan Korkmaz 12.5 (Over -165)
Thon Maker 16.5 (Under -120)

Draft Position Over/Under (BetOnline)
Buddy Hield 5.5 (Over -175)
Jaylen Brown 7.5 (Over 7.5)
Jakob Poeltl 9.5 (Over -150)
Domantas Sabonis 11.5 (Under -160)
Denzel Valentine 17.5 (Over -165)

Draft Position Over/Under (Ladbrokes)
Dragan Bender 5.5 (Under -150)
Jaylen Brown 8.5 (Under -137)
Jakob Poeltl 9.5 (Over -137)
Gary Payton Jr 45.5 (Under -115)

Draft Position Over/Under (Paddy Power)
Jamal Murray 3.5 (Over -125)
Kris Dunn 4.5 (Under -120)
Marquese Chriss 4.5 (Under -137)
Dragan Bender 4.5 (Under moved from -200 to +187)
Buddy Hield 5.5 (Under moved from -120 to -150)
Jaylen Brown 8.5 (Under -350)
Domantas Sabonis 12.5 (Over -137)
Thon Maker 30.5 (Under moved from -175 to -250)

Draft Position Over/Under (SBO)
Kris Dunn 3.5 (Under -185)
Marquese Chriss 4.5 (Under -115)
Jamal Murray 4.5 (Over -175)
Buddy Hield 6 (Under -120)
Jakob Poeltl 10.5 (Under -140)
Domantas Sabonis 11.5 (Under -120)

Draft Position Over/Under (Sportsbook.com)
Jakob Poeltl 10.5 (Under -130)
Domantas Sabonis 11.5 (Under -120)
Malachi Richardson 17.5 (Under -245)
Denzel Valentine 18.5 (Over -140)
Malik Beasley 21.5 (Under -120)
Taurean Prince 23.5 (Over -130)
Thon Maker 30.5 (Under -200)

Draft Position Over/Under (TopBet)
Denzel Valentine 16.5 (Over -200)
Brice Johnson 20.5 (Over -180)
Marcus Paige 60.5 (Over -160)
Ryan Arcidiacono 60.5 (Over -700)

There are a few inconsistencies with these odds (particularly at Paddy Power) and I believe that several prop bets are offering value. It seems highly unlikely that Croatian forward/center Dragan Bender will be a top four selection, which is why I love getting plus money (+137) on Over 4.5 at Paddy Power. Unfortunately, his odds of being drafted in the first four picks have dropped from -200 to +187 since yesterday which eliminates any value. I still believe Bender will slip to the Nuggets at number seven but I wouldn’t lay -275.

When this article was first posted, another small value bet that I identified was Kris Dunn (+240) to be selected ahead of Jamal Murray (+160), Dragan Bender (+220) and Buddy Hield at TopBet. Even if the Celtics pass on Dunn (likely in favor of Brown) with the third pick, I couldn’t foresee Dunn slipping past Minnesota at number five. He’s still a decent value at +180, but hopefully bettors jumped on +240 yesterday.

We will continue to update this mock draft as new props are posted, but make sure to bookmark our free NBA odds page for all of your betting needs during the Summer Olympics.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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