2016 College Football: Week 9 Betting Recap

2016 College Football: Week 9 Betting Recap

Week 9 saw four undefeated teams lose their first game of the season (Baylor, Boise, Nebraska, West Virginia) while Clemson, Ohio State, Michigan, and Washington all got wins to solidify their playoff hopes. Below shows a rundown of what happened in Week 9.

Week 9 Trends via BetLabsSports.com

Dogs: 32-22 ATS
Home: 27-26 ATS
Teams getting less than 30% tickets: 4-5 ATS
Faves getting less than 50% tickets: 8-10 ATS

Underdogs are now 162-111 ATS for +42 units in October after a slow start to the season. All teams getting <30% of tickets, and favorites getting <50% of tickets are still very profitable on the entire season thus far.

Biggest Week 9 Moneyline Upsets

Buffalo +733 v Akron
South Carolina +613 v Tennessee
Ohio +549 at Toledo
Wyoming +481 v Boise
BC +403 at NC State

Virginia reached +6000 on the moneyline vs. Louisville and had the lead late until falling 32-25. The biggest upset that we’ve ever tracked dating back to 2005 is last year’s win by New Mexico over Boise as +5500 moneyline underdogs.

Moneyline dogs went 15-37 straight up for +12.76 units in Week 9.

Betting Nuggets

4 teams lost their first game of the season on Saturday (Boise, WVU, Baylor, Nebraska). Of the four, Boise was the biggest favorite at -15.5 points.

Ohio State had been 10-1 ATS after a SU loss since 2008, covering by an average of 14 ppg, and the Buckeyes moved from -21 to -27 vs. Northwestern. However, they barely won 24-20 to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Colorado remains the only undefeated team ATS (8-0) since they had the week off.

Oregon entered the week as the only team yet to cover a closing line (0-6-1 ATS) but finally covered against Arizona State, winning 54-35. Oregon moved from -7.5 to -9.5 by close despite getting less than 50% of tickets.

USC moved from -14 to -20 by close despite getting just 38% of spread tickets, and were able to cover by beating Cal 45-24 Thursday night. Contrarian favorites with at least 2 points of line movement towards them has now gone 9-0 ATS this season.

South Florida (-6) beat Navy 52-45 on Friday night after jumping out to a 28-0 lead. USF head coach Willie Taggart is now an NCAAF best 20-9 ATS when his teams receive less than 35% of spread tickets.

Since he became head coach at Western Kentucky, Jeff Brohm had the worst ATS record as a visitor (4-13 ATS, -9.19 u), but covered easily at Florida Atlantic, winning 56-3 as 21.5-point favorites.

Over/Unders for Texas Tech games this season from Week 1 to Week 9: 86.5, 80, 82.5, 78.5, 68, 82, 85.5, 87 (Overs have gone 4-4).

Over/Unders for BC games this season from Week 1 to Week 9: 42.5, 37.5, 39, 57, 40, 43, 49.5, 42 (Unders have gone 6-2).

Michigan State decided to go for 2 after scoring a TD with 1 second left against Michigan. The touchdown made the score 30-23 so going for 2 made absolutely zero sense. The attempt failed miserably and Michigan returned it for 2 points, which actually sent the game over the closing total of 54 (ended Michigan 32-23). Here it is:

Heisman Watch

Lamar Jackson entered the week at -350 to win the Heisman but Louisville struggled to barely come back and beat UVA 32-25. Deshaun Watson entered the week at +1000 and got a big road win at FSU, while Michigan’s Jabrill Peppers (+800) was incredible against Michigan State. Jackson will still be a lofty favorite heading into Week 10, but a loss at Houston could derail all hopes of the Heisman.

Major Injuries

There are a number of new key injuries including Air Force QB Nate Romine (questionable), Arkansas QB Austin Allen (questionable), West Virginia RB Rushel Shell, and Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes (questionable).

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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