2016 College Football: Week 8 Betting Recap

Week 8 Trends via BetLabsSports.com
Less than 30% tickets: 6-4 ATS
Underdogs: 31-24 ATS
Favorites less than 50% tickets: 6-9 ATS
Overs: 29-26

Underdogs went 31-24 ATS for +5 units in NCAAF Week 8 and are now 97-64 ATS in the last 3 weeks.

Biggest Week 8 Moneyline Upsets
SMU +1102 v Houston
Penn St +644 v Ohio St
North Tex +629 at Army
Hawaii +549 at Air Force

Moneyline underdogs went 17-39 for +10.74 units in Week 8.

Betting Nuggets
Arkansas closed with 69% of tickets as a road underdog in one of the most bet games of the day, but lost at Auburn 56-3. Although contrarian favorites didn’t perform too well in Week 8, Auburn moved from -7.5 to -10.5 by close as there was clearly sharp money all over the Tigers.

Colorado is still only undefeated team ATS (8-0) after beating Stanford 10-5.

Oregon remains the only team yet to cover a game this season (0-6-1 ATS) on the closing line after losing 52-49 to Cal on Friday night. Oregon opened +3 but closed -3 and despite forcing OT, wasn’t able to ultimately cover.

The closing total of 90 for Oregon/Cal was the highest we’ve ever tracked, and the game went over the total after going into overtime tied 42-42.

There were several games where both teams scored 40+ points: Oklahoma over Texas Tech 66-59, UTEP over UTSA 52-49, Cal over Oregon 52-49, Rice over Prairie View 65-44, Middle Tennessee St over Mizzou 51-45, and Utah over UCLA 52-45.

#2 ranked Ohio State opened -19.5 on spread and closed -17.5 at Penn State, and lost 24-21. It was the Buckeyes’ first loss on the road under Urban Meyer (now 20-1). The Buckeyes can still reach the NCAAF playoff by winning out and winning the Big Ten, so the loss doesn’t derail their season. This was how Penn State took the lead in the 4th quarter:

According to David Purdum, a bettor at William Hill placed $12,000 on the Ohio State moneyline which would have paid out $1,000 but lost.

Texas A&M +18 at Bama was the highest Top 10 spread since 2013 and the second highest since 2003. Bama received less than 40% of tickets from our contributing books but covered the spread, winning 33-14. Bama has now scored 12 non-offensive touchdowns this season, same total as their defense has given up.

Looking ahead to the NCAAF Playoff, Westgate has released some potential title game lines:
Ohio St vs. Bama -7
Michigan vs. Bama -8.5
Clemson vs. Bama -7.5
Washingon vs. Bama -12

Heisman Watch
Lamar Jackson entered the week at -195 odds to win and had a monster game to beat NC State. He should be at least -200 heading into next week.

Key Injuries
A number of key players are questionable next week including UCLA QB Josh Rosen, USF QB Quinton Flowers, and Cal WR Chad Hansen.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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