2016 College Football: Week 13 Betting Recap

The focus of Week 13 was on Michigan at Ohio State and it did not disappoint. In a low-scoring affair, Ohio State tied the game on a field goal with 1 second left which sent the game to overtime. The Buckeyes then converted a close 4th down play in double-overtime before a walkoff touchdown won the game 30-27. Despite the success of both schools, neither will be playing in the Big Ten Championship (Wisconsin vs. Penn State). Below is a recap of Week 13 with trends, upsets, nuggets, futures and more.

Week 13 Trends via BetLabsSports.com

Visitors 29-28 ATS
Dogs 34-24 ATS
Less than 50% tickets: 32-27 ATS
Overs 35-25

Biggest Moneyline Upsets

Kentucky +1726 at Louisville
Southern Miss +455 vs Lousiana Tech
Colorado St +336 at SDSU
Mississippi St +312 at Miss
Nevada +310 at UNLV

Underdogs went 21-40 on the moneyline this week for +19 units, and have now earned +60 units this season.

Underdogs at +250 or higher on the moneyline have gone 88-414 straight up this season for +53.15 units. In comparison, NFL underdogs at +250 or higher on the moneyline are just 6-28 for -10.2 units this season.

Betting Nuggets

Michigan was bet down from +7 to +3 before kickoff in the most bet game of the weekend and lost in overtime 30-27 at Ohio State in a captivating game. It was also a tough break for Under bettors as the game was surely not close to the total until overtime.

Michigan/Ohio State was the most-bet noon kickoff all season, and 5th most-bet game in any time slot this year. Louisville/Clemson was top.

Miami Ohio became the first team ever to start the season 0-6 and then win 6 in a row. They’re now bowl-eligible and almost had a chance to make the MAC Title Game if Ohio had lost.

Texas A&M got QB Trevor Knight back early for the LSU game while the Tigers were without Leonard Fournette, yet LSU moved from -4.5 to -7 by close. LSU easily won 54-39 and on Saturday morning announced Ed Orgeron would remain as head coach next season.

Texas got crushed by TCU to fall to 5-7 this season and then parted ways with HC Charlie Strong. Even before the loss, Tom Herman was listed at -260 to be Texas’ head coach next season and surely enough it was announced Saturday morning that he would take over.

Tom Herman’s team this season, Houston, was able to beat Oklahoma and Louisville during the year but a loss at Memphis in the final week meant that the Cougars actually went UNDER their Season Win Total of 9.5. Louisville was also an impressive team throughout the season but they too went UNDER their win total.

Speaking of coaches, Bruce Feldman pointed out that South Florida HC Willie Taggart has quietly improved his program, moving from 2 to 4 to 8 to 10 wins. He’s gone 28-19 ATS in his 4 seasons there and is the most profitable active coach in our entire database (including his time with WKU).

On Sunday morning, Florida Atlantic head coach Charlie Partridge was fired. He went just 12-21 ATS in his time there including 2-9-1 ATS this year.

Taking a turn to totals, the Texas Tech/Baylor total closed at 83 points which should sound familiar by now. 9 of the 12 Texas Tech games this year closed above 80 points, and it’s the 15th total in all of college football above 80+ points this season. There were only 16 such games in all of college football from 2005-2016.

The LOWEST total for any Texas Tech game this season was 68 points. The HIGHEST total for a BC game all season was 57 points.

BC/Wake Forest total opened at 34 points and fell under, with BC winning 17-14.

Ohio won a 9-3 ugly game in midweek MACtion, and they remain the best UNDER team this season at 10-1.

Western Michigan continued their perfect season (12-0) by beating Toledo easily at home, and they’re now 9-3 ATS this year.

Colorado dropped to 10-2 ATS but beat Utah 27-22 to advance to the Pac-12 Title Game against Washington.

Arizona (+1) crushed Arizona State at home and became the last team to cover at least 2 games this season. They entered the game at 1-10 ATS.

Despite a 10-2 record this season, Boise State failed to cover every single 2nd half line, going 0-12 ATS.

Here’s a look at Conference Championship Games and preseason odds to win each conference:

ncaaf-conf-title-games

Heisman Watch

Heading into the final week of the season, Louisville QB Lamar Jackson was -6500 to win the Heisman with the field listed at +2875. Incredibly, they lost again, this time at home to Kentucky as 28-point favorites. It’s possible that Dashaun Watson or Jake Browning have a chance now.

Key Injuries

TCU QB Kenny Hill is questionable for Saturday (12/3) against Kansas State with a foot injury

Key players who are currently questionable for bowl games are:

NC State QB Ryan Finley (concussion)
Auburn QB Sean White (shoulder)
BYU QB Taysom Hill (elbow)
LSU RB Leonard Fournette (ankle)
New Mexico RB Tyrone Owens (foot)

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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