2016 College Football: Week 12 Betting Recap
Week 12 got off to another exciting start with Houston upsetting Louisville 36-10 as +800 moneyline dogs and +17 spread dogs. The Cardinals are now basically eliminated from the playoffs while it’s still Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State, Clemson, and Washington in the best position.
Week 12 Trends via BetLabsSports.com
Dogs 34-30 ATS
Visitors 32-32 ATS
Biggest Week 12 Moneyline Upsets
Kansas +1200 v Texas
Houston +800 v Louisville
Florida +429 at LSU
Arkansas State +359 at Troy
Oregon +350 v Utah
Dogs went 19-42 on the moneyline for +8.98 units won. On the season dogs have now earned +41.06 units on the moneyline.
There have been 60 moneyline upsets at +300 odds or higher this season.
Houston’s win over Louisville means the Cougars are now 5-0 straight up for +19.68 units on the moneyline when closing as an underdog under head coach Tom Herman. His odds likely got better to move to Texas next year after the Longhorns suffered a humiliating defeat at Kansas.
Texas led by 11 points midway through the 4th quarter before the Jayhawks (+1200 moneyline, +24 spread) came back to win 24-21 in overtime. The Longhorns are now 5-6 on the season and HC Charlie Strong could be gone by the time you read this.
With the win, Kansas actually went OVER their Season Win Total of 1.5 and got their first conference win in over 2 years.
Florida (+425 moneyline, +13.5 spread) upset LSU 16-10 on the road with a last second stop at the goal line. The Gators will face Alabama in the SEC Title Game and are listed as 21-point underdogs at Golden Nugget.
Oregon has struggled ATS and overall this year but got a very nice straight up win as 14-point dogs at Utah, 30-28. The Ducks got a 17-yard TD pass with 2 seconds left to win, paying out +350 on the moneyline.
Colorado is now 10-1 ATS this year after beating Washington State 38-24. The Buffaloes moved from -3.5 to -6 from open to close despite less than 40% of tickets.
Temple is also now 10-1 ATS after shutting out Tulane on the road 31-0 as 15-point favorites.
Wyoming is now 6-1 in the Mountain West and 8-3 overall after beating San Diego State at home, 34-33. The Aztecs scored on a hail mary touchdown after it was reviewed with no time left and decided to go for 2 for the win but couldn’t convert. These teams could meet in the MWC conference title game as well with San Diego State already winning the West division.
UConn/BC total closed at 36 points, lowest total since October of last season, and the game went UNDER with BC winning 30-0. Here are the closing totals for BC games this season: 42.5, 37.5, 39, 57, 40, 43, 49.5, 42, 52, 47, 36. The lowest total we’ve ever tracked in NCAAF is 34 (Vandy/Mizzou last year).
To contrast, Texas Tech/Iowa State opened 76.5 and closed at 76. Despite Iowa State scoring 66 points, the game actually PUSHED the closing total with the Cyclones winning 66-10. Here are the totals for Texas Tech games this season: 86.5, 80, 82.5, 78.5, 68, 82, 85.5, 87, 85.5, 87.5, 76.
In the 7 seasons from 2005-2012, there were 118 totals that closed at 70+ points in NCAAF. In the 5 seasons since, there have now been 262.
Since 2005, UNLV has been the second-worst team in the nation on Saturdays (50-75 ATS) but now third-best on weekdays (12-3 ATS) after losing 42-25 at Boise State on Friday night, covering +29.5.
Ohio has been the best team to bet UNDERS this season, going 9-1.
Pittsburgh has been the best team to bet OVERS this season, going 10-1.
It’s been all about QB Lamar Jackson all season but he and Louisville got crushed on Thursday night in Houston, losing 36-10. Jackson will still be a big favorite to win the award, but a loss next week against Kentucky would make things very interesting.
Here’s a look at the game-by-game logs for the top contenders (via ESPN). I left out Jabrill Pepper’s numbers since he plays on offense, defense, and special teams so it’s much tougher to compare. However, I do believe his name should be in the conversation.
Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville
Deshaun Watson, QB Clemson
Jake Browning, QB Washington
As always there are a number of key injuries to watch for, especially Michigan QB Wilton Speight, who could be back for next week’s game against Ohio State.