2016 College Football: Week 1 Betting Recap

2016 College Football: Week 1 Betting Recap

There’s still a game left in Week 1 with marquee matchup Ole Miss/FSU to be played Monday night in Orlando. But the opening week of this college football season was too exciting to wait and post a recap, so here’s what’s been going on from a betting aspect so far.

Early trends (data can be found at BetLabsSports.com):

Dogs 44-39 ATS
Visitors 42-34 ATS
Less than 30% of bets: 8-4 ATS
Unders 50-32

Biggest Moneyline Upsets (available at 5Dimes/Pinnacle):

South Alabama +7000 at Mississippi St
Eastern Washington +3000 at Washington St
Albany +1750 at Buffalo
Texas St +1059 at Ohio
Army +675 at Temple
Houston +482 vs Oklahoma

Betting Nuggets:

Houston opened +10 and closed +13, but upset Oklahoma. Oklahoma had 3rd best playoff odds at +175, and were around +1100 to win the NCAAF title. With the Sooners loss, it’s the 6th straight year that they’ve lost a game when favored by double-digits.

Wisconsin upset LSU at Lambeau Field 16-14. LSU was receiving the most money wagered to win the title prior to the season at Westgate, and they had the 6th best odds to make the playoffs at +260.

Dabo Swinney made an interesting decision late in the Clemson/Auburn game to NOT go for a field goal to put Clemson up 9. Instead, Auburn lost by 6 and covered the spread which fluctuated from +9.5 to +7 over the summer.

South Alabama won at Mississippi State on a late missed FG. So Bama was as high as 70:1 on the moneyline and +33 on the spread, but closed at +28.

Ball St (23% of tickets, opened +1.5 and closed +7), easily covered at Georgia State and is now an NCAAF-best 36-16 ATS as road dogs since 2005.

The MAC and AAC went 8-4 ATS, best conferences so far

Ranked teams went 6-11 ATS against unranked teams

Texas pulled off the small upset Sunday night over Notre Dame in double-overtime. The game went way over the total ending 50-47 despite the majority of tickets actually on the Under (opened 58, closed 56.5).

The total for Friday night’s Northwestern St/Baylor game closed at 81. It’s just the 18th total above 80 since 2005, and half have involved Baylor.

Tennessee needed OT to beat Appalachian State at home 20-13. The Volunteers closed -22 on the spread and -1300 on the moneyline, and a bettor at William Hill had a 44k moneyline bet on Vols to make $3,070.

Wyoming (+7) pulled off a small upset at home over Northern Illinois in a game that went into 3 overtimes, was delayed, and ended just before 5 am ET.

Heisman Hopefuls who made a big impact in Week 1, and their preseason Heisman odds:

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford +700
Nick Chubb, Georgia +2700
Greg Ward Jr., Houston +6000

Key injuries to watch for:
QB Tago Smith, Navy: A knee injury has him doubtful next week vs. UConn and possibly beyond.
RB Leonard Fournette, LSU: An ankle injury could keep him sidelined in Week 2 but luckily they’re playing Jacksonville State.
QB Chason Virgil, Fresno: A shoulder injury has him questionable next week vs. Sacramento State.
QB Matt Davis, SMU: A knee injury unfortunately leaves him questionable for next week’s big matchup against Baylor.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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