2016 College Football: Week 1 Betting Recap

There’s still a game left in Week 1 with marquee matchup Ole Miss/FSU to be played Monday night in Orlando. But the opening week of this college football season was too exciting to wait and post a recap, so here’s what’s been going on from a betting aspect so far.

Early trends (data can be found at BetLabsSports.com):

Dogs 44-39 ATS
Visitors 42-34 ATS
Less than 30% of bets: 8-4 ATS
Unders 50-32

Biggest Moneyline Upsets (available at 5Dimes/Pinnacle):

South Alabama +7000 at Mississippi St
Eastern Washington +3000 at Washington St
Albany +1750 at Buffalo
Texas St +1059 at Ohio
Army +675 at Temple
Houston +482 vs Oklahoma

Betting Nuggets:

Houston opened +10 and closed +13, but upset Oklahoma. Oklahoma had 3rd best playoff odds at +175, and were around +1100 to win the NCAAF title. With the Sooners loss, it’s the 6th straight year that they’ve lost a game when favored by double-digits.

Wisconsin upset LSU at Lambeau Field 16-14. LSU was receiving the most money wagered to win the title prior to the season at Westgate, and they had the 6th best odds to make the playoffs at +260.

Dabo Swinney made an interesting decision late in the Clemson/Auburn game to NOT go for a field goal to put Clemson up 9. Instead, Auburn lost by 6 and covered the spread which fluctuated from +9.5 to +7 over the summer.

South Alabama won at Mississippi State on a late missed FG. So Bama was as high as 70:1 on the moneyline and +33 on the spread, but closed at +28.

Ball St (23% of tickets, opened +1.5 and closed +7), easily covered at Georgia State and is now an NCAAF-best 36-16 ATS as road dogs since 2005.

The MAC and AAC went 8-4 ATS, best conferences so far

Ranked teams went 6-11 ATS against unranked teams

Texas pulled off the small upset Sunday night over Notre Dame in double-overtime. The game went way over the total ending 50-47 despite the majority of tickets actually on the Under (opened 58, closed 56.5).

The total for Friday night’s Northwestern St/Baylor game closed at 81. It’s just the 18th total above 80 since 2005, and half have involved Baylor.

Tennessee needed OT to beat Appalachian State at home 20-13. The Volunteers closed -22 on the spread and -1300 on the moneyline, and a bettor at William Hill had a 44k moneyline bet on Vols to make $3,070.

Wyoming (+7) pulled off a small upset at home over Northern Illinois in a game that went into 3 overtimes, was delayed, and ended just before 5 am ET.

Heisman Hopefuls who made a big impact in Week 1, and their preseason Heisman odds:

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford +700
Nick Chubb, Georgia +2700
Greg Ward Jr., Houston +6000

Key injuries to watch for:
QB Tago Smith, Navy: A knee injury has him doubtful next week vs. UConn and possibly beyond.
RB Leonard Fournette, LSU: An ankle injury could keep him sidelined in Week 2 but luckily they’re playing Jacksonville State.
QB Chason Virgil, Fresno: A shoulder injury has him questionable next week vs. Sacramento State.
QB Matt Davis, SMU: A knee injury unfortunately leaves him questionable for next week’s big matchup against Baylor.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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