2016-17 Premier League: Week 4 Betting Preview
The Premier League had the weekend off due to the international break but Week 3 was a success, going 3-1 in our value picks for +4.6 units (risking 1 unit on each game). Arsenal finally came through with a victory, and there were 3 draws in the early Saturday games and another draw on Sunday morning. Here are all the results from Week 3:
Chelsea -408 vs. Burnley
Manchester City -380 vs. West Ham
Manchester United -220 at Hull
Arsenal -159 at Watford
Everton -145 vs. Stoke City
Leicester -145 vs. Swansea
Southampton/Sunderland Draw +378
Tottenham/Liverpool Draw +240
Crystal Palace/Bournemouth Draw +236
West Brom/Middlesbrough Draw +210
There were four draws in total around the EPL in Week 3, and not one underdog cashed on the moneyline as the big favorites dominated. Here are Home/Away/Draw splits through 3 weeks:
Home: 11 wins of 30 (-4.3 units)
Away: 11 wins of 30 (-3.6 u)
Draw: 8 wins of 30 (-1.1 u)
It’s not surprising to see books profitable overall, but these results are a bit skewed due to the fact we base every result on risking 1 unit. Therefore big moneyline favorites winning (like Chelsea -408) is only going to profit +0.24 units, while a loss is -1 units.
Looking ahead to Week 4 and there’s no denying that the Manchester Derby is the highlight of all the matches. BetFair opened this line at Man Utd +140, Man City +190, Draw +225 but then Sergio Aguero delivered an elbow in his match in Week 3. Aguero was given a 3-match ban which means he’s out of the Derby on Saturday, and Pinnacle then opened Man Utd +126, Man City +247, Draw +244.
He’s clearly a significant loss to Man City, as they moved over 50 cents on the moneyline in his absence. The public is taking both sides in this game with little love for the draw, and I actually do think there’s now value on the draw at +240 odds. Man City are still good enough without Aguero to steal a point on the road, and the +240 odds are too good to pass up in a game that I can see ending 1-1.
There are also two home teams I like to take care of business this week– Bournemouth +110 vs. West Brom, and Burnley +157 vs. Hull City. First I’ll start with Bournemouth, who recently acquired midfielder Jack Wilshere on loan from Arsenal. Even if he doesn’t start Saturday’s game, it shows the club is serious about staying up in the EPL this year and this should boost them this week against a struggling West Brom squad. Although the majority of early tickets is coming in on Bournemouth, I think the price value is too good to pass up. If Bouremouth can score early and take a lead, I love their chances to keep a clean sheet. I’ll be riding Bournemouth +110 to get their first victory of the season.
I also like Burnley +157 vs. Hull City. Public bettors have flocked to Hull City, who have impressed early on in the season. However, this public perception has moved Burnley from +135 to +157, which is too much of an overreaction in my opinion. Neither of these teams has drawn a game this year either, and nearly 20% of bettors are taking the draw. Burnley is getting just 11% of all moneyline tickets, and I’ll be fading the public here and taking Burnley +157.
Most lopsided bets around the market: 92% on Arsenal, 80% on West Ham, 76% on Tottenham, 69% on Hull
Biggest Line Moves at Pinnacle: Hull +249 to +218, Stoke +379 to +361, Liverpool/Leicester Draw +332 to +314, Man City +247 to +233
Value picks: Man Utd/Man City Draw +245, Bournemouth +110, Burnley +157