I passed on the Week 31 matches but in Week 30 the value plays both hit: Watford (-115) and Swansea/Middlesbrough Draw (+242). Value plays on the season are now up +14.21 units (70 picks, 20% ROI). The title race has also tightened up a bit as Chelsea lost a shocker to Crystal Palace last weekend while Tottenham keep winning to put the pressure on them.
Week 30 Results:
Liverpool -137 vs. Everton
Tottenham -128 at Burnley
Leicester -112 vs. Stoke
Watford -103 vs. Sunderland
Hull +144 vs. West Ham
Swansea/Middlesbrough Draw +243
Arsenal/Man City Draw +284
Southampton/Bournemouth Draw +313
Man United/West Brom Draw +405
Crystal Palace +980 at Chelsea
Week 31 Results:
Arsenal -230 vs. West Ham
Leicester -198 vs. Sunderland
Tottenham -142 at Swansea
Southampton -116 vs. Crystal Palace
Hull +108 vs. Middlesbrough
Chelsea +122 vs. Man City
Burnley +147 vs. Stoke
Watford +150 vs. West Brom
Man Utd/Everton Draw +305
Liverpool/Bournemouth Draw +385
Home: 150 wins of 303 (+34.87 units)
Away: 82 wins of 303 (-68.51 units)
Draw: 71 wins of 303 (-14.38 units)
Title Odds at 5Dimes and Current Points:
Chelsea -1400 (72)
Tottenham +1000 (65)
Liverpool +10000 (60)
Man City +10000 (58)
Man Utd +75000 (54)
Arsenal +75000 (54)
The only value play for Week 32 will be, you guessed it, a draw. Sportsbooks’ betting %’s around the market are a little thin this weekend due to so many games in a small time frame (3 in 7 days for most teams), but right now the public is fairly heavy on Middlesbrough +142 at home vs. Burnley. Therefore, I like the draw at +215 odds here. Middlesbrough are stuck in the relegation zone and just can’t seem to find a win– they’ve got just 4 this season, while drawing 11 times and losing 15 times. Burnley on the other hand have won 10 games this season but 0 on the road (3 draws, 12 losses). On paper, this is a great chance for Middlesbrough to finally win a game, but I’m not really sold on them. Despite playing well against the top clubs, they’ve really struggled against everyone else and they blew a lead at Hull midweek. The public is avoiding the draw in this one but that’s the outcome to take at +215 odds.
I won’t be wagering on Everton/Leicester City, but this really is a match worth watching. Leicester City haven’t lost a game since sacking manager Claudio Ranieri and appear to be safe from the relegation zone. Leicester City also have a HUGE Champions League midweek match against Atletico Madrid, so it’ll be interesting to see how they prepare for that. Everton have been pretty solid all year and should have defeated Manchester United during the week after a tough loss at Liverpool. I’m not sure which way I’d go here, but I’d expect to see goals so Over 2.5 may be worth a bet.
Most Lopsided Around Market: 80% on Leicester City (+395), 69% on Liverpool (-102)
Biggest Line Moves at Pinnacle: Stoke (+403 to +306), Man Utd (-248 to -280)
Value Plays (+14.21 units): Middlesbrough/Burnley Draw +215
Don’t forget about Champions League matches on Tuesday and Wednesday– Betting Preview for Champions League Quartefinals.
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