2015 US Open Golf Preview

The 115th US Open Championship is scheduled for June 18-21 at Chambers Bay in University Place, Washington. Chambers Bay Golf Course is only eight years old and will be host to the first US Open held in the Pacific Northwest.

Last year Martin Kaymer won this tournament at +4000 odds and there have been a number of big longshots to take the win in this major. Below shows recent winners dating back to 2003 with their pre-tournament consensus odds:

Year Player Odds to Win
2015 Jordan Spieth +800
2014 Martin Kaymer +4000
2013 Justin Rose +2500
2012 Webb Simpson +5000
2011 Rory McIlroy +1400
2010 Graeme McDowell +8000
2009 Lucas Glover +25000
2008 Tiger Woods +170
2007 Angel Cabrera +20000
2006 Geoff Ogilvy +8000
2005 Michael Campbell +50000
2004 Retief Goosen +15000
2003 Jim Furyk +3300

The early favorite for yet another major win is Rory McIlroy but recent Masters winner Jordan Spieth has been gaining traction. The table below shows the full list of odds at 5Dimes for each contender, including Tiger Woods who is coming off a career-worst outing at the Memorial:

Golfer June 18 June 15 June 8 May 18 April 20
McIlroy +645 +660 +555 +460 +555
Spieth +790 +725 +700 +875 +825
Mickelson +1300 +1470 +2200 +2200 +2300
Rose +1475 +1470 +1800 +2200 +2300
D. Johnson +1765 +1955 +1600 +1800 +1900
Fowler +1975 +1640 +2100 +2400 +2700
Stenson +2350 +2700 +2800 +2800 +2500
Matsuyama +3300 +3400 +4000 +4500 +4500
Furyk +4000 +4300 +3700 +4500 +5000
Day +4300 +4300 +3000 +2600 +2400
B Watson +4300 +3300 +3900 +3500 +3000
Scott +4300 +3700 +3100 +2800 +2000
Garcia +4500 +4100 +3400 +2800 +4500
J Walker +4500 +4400 +4000 +4500 +3700
Snedeker +4500 +5500 +5500 +7000 +5000
Horschel +5000 +6000 +7000 +6000 +7000
P Reed +5000 +6000 +4500 +4500 +3200
Koepka +5500 +6000 +7500 +6500 +7000
Goosen +5500 +52500 N/A N/A N/A
Kuchar +6600 +6600 +5500 +4300 +3800
Woods +6600 +7000 +4000 +2600 +2300
BH An +7000 +8000 N/A N/A N/A
Moore +7000 +8500 +9500 +11000 +7500
Bradley +8000 +9000 +8000 +11500 +8000
Kaymer +8000 +5500 +4800 +3200 +3800
Casey +8000 +8000 +6600 +6500 +7000
Kisner +9000 +100000 N/A N/A N/A
Z. Johnson +9000 +9000 +10000 +10000 +10000
Oosthuizen +9000 +9500 +9000 +7000 +7500
Poulter +9500 +9500 +8500 +6500 +7000
F Molinari +9500 +10000 +10500 +20000 +31500
Simpson +9500 +9500 +8500 +7500 +10000
Leishman +10000 +11000 N/A N/A N/A
Na +10000 +11000 +11500 +13500 +18500
Palmer +10000 +11000 N/A N/A N/A
Haas +10000 +12000 +11500 +10000 +12500
Kirk +10000 +9500 N/A N/A N/A
Grace +10500 +14500 N/A N/A N/A
Lowry +11500 +12500 N/A N/A N/A
Willett +11500 +15000 N/A N/A N/A
Dufner +11500 +9000 +7500 +18500 +14500
Westwood +12500 +9500 +8500 +6000 +5500
Holmes +13500 +8500 +10000 +8000 +8000
Noren +14500 +18500 N/A N/A N/A
Mahan +15500 +10000 +9000 +9000 +11000
Donaldson +15500 +18500 +17500 +11500 +17500
Finau +15500 +19000 N/A N/A N/A
Donald +16500 +11000 +12500 +14500 +10000
McDowell +16500 +14500 +10000 +8000 +7000
Woodland +18500 +12500 +14000 +10500 +13500
Els +20000 +21500 +20000 +11500 +10000
Wiesberger +21500 +22500 N/A N/A N/A
Streb +21500 +28500 N/A N/A N/A
Todd +23500 +18500 N/A N/A N/A
Martin +27500 +28500 N/A N/A N/A
Dubuisson +27500 +21500 N/A N/A N/A
Henley +27500 +21000 N/A N/A N/A
Levy +29500 +32500 N/A N/A N/A
A Cabrera +30000 +22500 +24000 +20500 +18500
Warren +30000 +47500 N/A N/A N/A
Luiten +30000 +35000 N/A N/A N/A
Schwartzel +30500 +17500 +12500 +9000 +8500
Ogilvy +33500 +28500 N/A N/A N/A
Jimenez +36500 +26500 +25000 +34500 +23500
Fleetwood +36500 +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Hoffman +37500 +38500 N/A N/A N/A
Gallacher +37500 +38500 N/A N/A N/A
Senden +38500 +32500 N/A N/A N/A
Putnam +40000 +40000 N/A N/A N/A
McNeil +42500 +59000 N/A N/A N/A
Villegas +48500 +58500 N/A N/A N/A
Aiken +52500 +46500 N/A N/A N/A
Tringale +52500 +35000 N/A N/A N/A
Jaidee +54500 +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Lee +55000 +72000 N/A N/A N/A
Ishikawa +55000 +48500 N/A N/A N/A
Coetzee +55000 +31500 N/A N/A N/A
Harman +58500 +51500 N/A N/A N/A
Glover +58500 +49000 N/A N/A N/A
Compton +62500 +35000 +35000 +40000 +22500
Siem +68500 +75000 N/A N/A N/A
Every +70000 +39000 N/A N/A N/A
Hearn +75000 +72500 N/A N/A N/A
Montgomerie +75000 +85000 N/A N/A N/A
Van Pelt +80000 +56500 N/A N/A N/A
50+ players listed at +100000 +100000 N/A N/A N/A
Blixt N/A +29000 +25000 +21500 +17500
Uihlein N/A +21000 N/A N/A N/A
Bjorn N/A +52000 +38500 +47500 +27500
Stricker N/A +30000 +20500 +23500 +21500

Since bettors are always eager to bet on Tiger Woods (seemingly regardless of the price) his odds are typically shaded very heavily. However, now the question isn’t whether Tiger will win, it’s whether he’ll even make the cut:

There are also some general prop bets available for the US Open:

Last year Jordan Spieth was the most popular golfer for bettors in last year’s US Open as more bets were placed on Spieth than any other golfer at LVH, and this year is shaping up to be similar. Spieth has now won the 2015 Masters and has already moved from 16:1 to 7:1 around the market to win the 2015 US Open. However, McIlroy’s dominant performances over the last few weeks have kept him at the top.

Golf bettors and fans alike should be excited for this weekend’s tournament, as it will provide more of a British Open feel in terms of looks and layout. There are no trees on the course and the greens are likely to be fast and bumpy. The course is a rollercoaster with its up-and-down hills, exemplified by the 5th hole below, showing the importance of accuracy and scrambling:

chambers bay golf course

Picks to win the US Open:

Dan M: I picked Henrik Stenson to win the Masters and although he ended up getting sick before the tournament, put up a respectable 19th place finish. Past major performances may not matter for this course but he’s had 9 career Top 10 finishes and has the skill to win at a course like Chambers Bay. He may be a bit of a trendy selection but I’m going with Henrik Stenson +2700 to win the 2015 US Open. For those that don’t have the confidence in picking an outright winner, betting on a Top 10 or Top 5 finish can also net a decent return.

Travis: I immediately looked for golfers that are long off of the tee as I feel they should have a distinct advantage over the shorter players at this course.  After looking past some of the favorites, I ended up going with Brooks Koepka at +6000 who is 6th on the PGA in driving distance.  This should lead to some shorter approach shots where Koepka ranks 24th in approaches between 100-125 yards.  Once he gets on the green, he’s ranked 8th this season in strokes gained putting and he’s coming off of a third place last week and I believe recent form is an important factor to consider as well.

PJ: As mentioned at the beginning of the article, Chambers Bay is a relatively new golf course, meaning there have been very few opportunities for players to experience the course in tournament conditions. However, Chambers Bay did host the 2010 U.S. Amateur Championship, which included my pick, Patrick Reed at +6000. Because we’re not sure what type of player and/or skill set is needed to get around this course, I’m starting my US Open card off with Reed, a player who has both tournament experience at Chambers Bay and the ability to get hot and make birdies (Reed currently ranks 12th in average birdies per round this season).

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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