Every Tuesday morning, the team at Sports Insights will examine some of the most interesting trends and results from the past week’s NFL action. We’ll also look at our betting systems, prop bets, bad beats and more before looking ahead to the following week.
- Favorites had their fourth consecutive winning week, posting a 9-6 ATS record during Week 15. Since going 2-14 ATS in Week 10, favorites have gone 43-31 ATS. Despite this recent streak, favorites have still gone just 103-113 ATS (47.7%) on the season.
- Visitors went 8-7 ATS in Week 15, pushing their record to 115-98 ATS (54%) on the season. Road underdogs have been particularly profitable with a 77-63 ATS (55%) record.
- As we have explained before, the majority of spread bets are typically placed on the favorite. That means that when favorites win, our betting against the public strategies suffer. In Week 15 teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets were 6-9 ATS, teams receiving less than 40% of spread bets were 1-7 ATS and teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets were 0-5 ATS.
- With this atrocious performance for betting against the public, teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets have dropped to 28-29 ATS on the season.
- There were eight games last week in which a team with a winning record played a team with a losing record. In these games, the team with the winning record was 7-1 ATS.
- In the past we have explained how underdogs have historically provided value in divisional games, since the familiarity between teams helps to level that playing field. This season underdogs have gone 37-32 ATS (53.6%) in divisional games, but visitors have been even more profitable.
- Based on those criteria, there could be seven teams offering value this week including San Diego, Washington, New England, Houston, Carolina, St. Louis and Pittsburgh.
- There were only four moneyline upsets in Week 15, and all of them featured underdogs of 2.5-points or less. In the biggest upset, the Texans (closed +120) defeated the Colts to take a one-game lead in the AFC South.
- Bettors would have gone 81-143 (36.2%) with +3.89 units won by taking every underdog on the moneyline this season. When we focus solely on road underdogs, that record improves to 55-91 (37.7%) with +16.69 units won.
- In this week’s bad beat analysis, we wanted to highlight Sunday’s Giants/Panthers game. Carolina, who closed as a 4.5-point favorite, led by 28-points with just under six minutes remaining in the third quarter. However, the Giants rallied to score four straight touchdowns to tie the score at 35. Although Carolina won on a last second field goal, they were unable to cover the closing spread. This bad beat was made even tougher to swallow given that Odell Beckham — who ultimately scored the game-tying touchdown — should have been ejected for a cheap shot taken at cornerback Josh Norman.
- The Panthers defeated the Giants by 3-points on Sunday, improving their record to 14-0 on the season. According to oddsmakers, Carolina is now expected to finish the season with a perfect 16-0 record.
NFL Proposition Carolina Panthers go 16-0 in 2015-16 regular season? Yes -160 No +140
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) December 21, 2015
- After factoring out the juice, we found that there’s a 60% implied probability that Carolina will win their next two games.
- Many football fans are likely wondering how last week’s results affected the playoff race — specifically the race in the NFC East and the final two AFC Wild Card spots. Right now the Redskins control their own destiny, while the Jets playoff hopes are looking grim.
Updated NFC East Odds (5Dimes) Redskins -140 Eagles +170 Giants +1400
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) December 22, 2015
Updated Playoff Odds Chiefs -2000 Steelers -1200 Jets +300
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) December 22, 2015
- With the Texans win over the Colts, Houston’s odds of making the playoffs improved from +160 to -1100.
- Odds to win the AFC:
- New England Patriots +105
- Pittsburgh Steelers +375
- Denver Broncos +600
- Kansas City Chiefs +885
- Cincinnati Bengals +900
- Houston Texans +4000
- New York Jets +4800
- Indianapolis Colts +7500
- Jacksonville Jaguars +30000
- Odds to win the NFC:
- Carolina Panthers +180
- Arizona Cardinals +275
- Seattle Seahawks +340
- Green Bay Packers +590
- Minnesota Vikings +2500
- Washington Redskins +4700
- Philadelphia Eagles +4800
- New York Giants +5000
- Odds to win Super Bowl 50:
- New England Patriots +285
- Carolina Panthers +410
- Seattle Seahawks +675
- Arizona Cardinals +700
- Pittsburgh Steelers +900
- Green Bay Packers +1150
- Denver Broncos +1400
- Kansas City Chiefs +2100
- Cincinnati Bengals +2200
- Minnesota Vikings +6600
- Houston Texans +10000
- Washington Redskins +12000
- New York Jets +12500
- Philadelphia Eagles +12500
- New York Giants +13500
- Indianapolis Colts +20000
- Jacksonville Jaguars +100000
- Most likely Super Bowl matchups:
- New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers +675
- New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals +687
- New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks +825
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs Carolina Panthers +1265
- New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers +1370
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals +1735
- Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers +1940
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks +2055
- Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals +2650
- Kansas City Chiefs vs Carolina Panthers +2800
- Last week Cam Newton was listed as the -500 favorite to win the NFL MVP Award, but most sportsbooks have taken this prop bet off the board. Newton racked up 440 total yards and 5 touchdowns in Sunday’s win over the Giants, so it will be interesting to see whether oddsmakers post odds for Newton versus the field at some point this week.
Looking forward to next week? Don’t forget to read our Week 16 Opening Line Report for early line movement and a comparison to preseason lines from CG Technology.
Make sure to bookmark our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, public betting trends, injuries, futures and more. Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com
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