2015-16 NFL Playoff Odds

The 2015-16 NFL season is scheduled to begin on September 10th with the annual Thursday night kickoff game. This year’s matchup features the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers. Although this date is still nearly two months away, sportsbooks have been posting a smorgasbord of betting opportunities including Week 1 lines, futures and prop bets.

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At this time of the year, many bettors are beginning to tire of the lengthy (and often-times tedious) MLB season. These same individuals are typically morally opposed to betting WNBA games, despite the fact that there are actually excellent opportunities for shrewd bettors. To capitalize on this lull in the sports calendar, offshore oddsmakers will almost always go back to their bread and butter — football.

While most fans were watching the Kansas City Royals, or rather the American League, win the MLB All-Star game, one prominent offshore sportsbook posted one of the most sought after prop bets; particularly for the more casual fan.

Earlier in the week BetOnline, which has a reputation as being one of the more “square” offshore sportsbooks, posted NFL playoff odds for all 32 NFL teams. Along with the odds to make or miss the playoffs, we wanted to know the implied probability for each franchise to reach the postseason. By eliminating the juice/vig, we believe we have an accurate gauge on the confidence of the oddsmakers.

The table below displays the odds from BetOnline on July 17th, and will be updated as new information becomes available.

Team Make Playoffs Miss Playoffs Implied Probability
Indianapolis Colts -700 +450 85.19%
Seattle Seahawks -700 +450 85.19%
Green Bay Packers -550 +350 81.82%
Denver Broncos -325 +250 74.19%
New England Patriots -300 +240 72.97%
Dallas Cowboys -165 +135 60.00%
Philadelphia Eagles -145 +115 56.52%
Baltimore Ravens -130 +100 53.49%
Cincinnati Bengals +100 -130 46.51%
Pittsburgh Steelers +110 -140 44.44%
New Orleans Saints +125 -155 41.67%
Carolina Panthers +135 -165 40.00%
Atlanta Falcons +145 -175 38.46%
Houston Texans +160 -195 36.04%
Miami Dolphins +160 -195 36.04%
Arizona Cardinals +165 -205 35.09%
Buffalo Bills +165 -205 35.09%
Detroit Lions +165 -205 35.09%
Kansas City Chiefs +165 -205 35.09%
San Diego Chargers +170 -215 34.19%
New York Giants +190 -240 31.75%
St. Louis Rams +220 -280 28.57%
Minnesota Vikings +260 -350 24.69%
New York Jets +350 -500 19.05%
San Francisco 49ers +350 -500 19.05%
Chicago Bears +600 -1000 11.11%
Cleveland Browns +600 -1000 11.11%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +600 -1000 11.11%
Washington Redskins +600 -1000 11.11%
Jacksonville Jaguars +800 -1600 7.69%
Oakland Raiders +1000 -2000 6.25%
Tennessee Titans +1000 -2000 6.25%

The Seattle Seahawks (+450) are the favorite to win their second Super Bowl in three years, so it’s hardly shocking to see them with the best odds of making the postseason. However, bettors may be curious as to why they are tied with the Indianapolis Colts as the most likely playoff team.

At +800, the Colts futures are worse than the Green Bay Packers (+550) and are tied with the New England Patriots. Considering that the Pats are only listed at -300 to make the playoffs, there are two immediate takeaways:

  1. The AFC South is one of the weaker divisions in football, making it more likely that Indianapolis will reach the playoffs. This assertion is supported by the current divisional odds.
  2. The current turmoil surrounding Tom Brady has made it very difficult for bettors to set good lines for the Patriots. Although most sportsbooks moved the Pats from -6.5 to -3 for their Week 1 game against the Steelers, many oddsmakers (including the market-setting CRIS) have taken this game off the board. We’ve also noticed similar hesitation with New England’s win total. Ultimately, oddsmakers believe the Patriots are still an elite team with Super Bowl aspirations, but their chances of actually making the playoffs wane if Brady is forced to miss significant time.

It’s also interesting to examine the quagmire known as the AFC North where the Ravens (-130) have the best odds of making the playoffs, but the Bengals (+100) and Steelers (+110) are nipping at their heels. The Browns are being viewed as an afterthought with an 11.11% implied probability of reaching the postseason.

Although the NFC South is one of the weaker divisions in football, there is a similar level of parity at the top. The Saints (+125), Panthers (+135) and Falcons (+145) are all listed at plus money, making this the only division in football where no team’s implied probability of making the playoffs is at least 50%.

Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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