2015 NBA Finals Betting Trends
Game 1 of the NBA Finals tips off on Thursday night with the Golden State Warriors (67-15) hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29). The Warriors opened as 5.5-point favorites at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook and, at the time of publication, were receiving 38% of spread bets.
Despite this one-sided action, Golden State has actually moved to -6 across the sports betting marketplace. It’s interesting to see the public once again pounding the underdog, as this type of action is highly irregular during the regular season but fairly common during the postseason.
We’ll be publishing a full analysis for Game 1 on Thursday afternoon, but right now fans may be curious about how the entire series will play out. The Warriors are currently -240 to win the NBA Finals at 5Dimes, but perhaps more noteworthy is that bettors can actually wager on every game in the series.
- Cleveland at Golden State (-6)
- Cleveland at Golden State (-5)
- Golden State at Cleveland (-2.5)
- Golden State at Cleveland (-2.5)
- Cleveland at Golden State (-5.5)
- Golden State at Cleveland (-3)
- Cleveland at Golden State (-5.5)
The first observation we notice is that Golden State is favored by one fewer point in Game 2 than they are in Game 1. The Warriors are also favored by a half-point more in Game 6 than they are in Game 4. For what it’s worth, the total for every game is 202.5.
Most sportsbooks offer a prop bet regarding the exact series result, and right now oddsmakers believe the most likely outcome is that the Warriors will win the series in seven games. The least likely outcome, which should come as no surprise, would be the Cavaliers sweeping the series. The list below displays the current odds at Bovada:
- Cavs in 4 | +1800
- Cavs in 5 | +1200
- Cavs in 6 | +500
- Cavs in 7 | +600
- Warriors in 4 | +800
- Warriors in 5 | +350
- Warriors in 6 | +400
- Warriors in 7 | +260
Regarding some of the more basic trends, there have been no significant edges. Since 2005, favorites have gone 29-28 ATS during the NBA Finals while home teams have gone 31-26 ATS. However, our hallmark strategy of betting against the public continues to be profitable. The table below displays the sweet spots for contrarian betting:
| Spread Percentage | Record (ATS) | Units Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| <49 | 31-24 | +5.59 | 10.2% |
| <45 | 23-13 | +9.01 | 25.0% |
| <40 | 9-4 | +4.67 | 35.9% |
According to our Bet Labs software, no team has ever received less than 31% of spread bets during the NBA Finals. The two teams who have received such limited support include:
- Miami Heat (-3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder | 6/19/12 (W)
- Orlando Magic (-1.5) vs. Los Angeles Lakers | 6/11/09 (L)
In regards to the total, the under has gone 31-25 over the past decade while betting against the public has been similarly profitable. The under has gone 27-21 and the over has gone 3-2 when receiving less than 50% of public bets.
These two teams faced off twice during the regular season, splitting the season series. However, LeBron James did not play in the teams’ first matchup:
- February 26, 2015: GS at CLE (-3 | O/U 216.5) — Cavs win 110-99
- January 9, 2015: CLE at GS (-13.5 | 210.5) — Warriors win 112-94
The Cavaliers were 13.5-point underdogs with King James sidelined and Kevin Love healthy; however, they are only 6-point underdogs with LeBron James suiting up and Kevin Love out for the season. This indicates the LeBron is worth roughly 7.5-points to the spread.
Historically, postseason totals tend to be significantly lower than regular season totals, and that fact is certainly validated by this series. With both teams fully healthy on February 26th the total was 216.5. Although Kevin Love’s absence certainly factors in, it’s amazing to see the total drop 14-points to 202.5.
Last season Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard showed the nation why he was one of the game’s best kept secrets. With lock down defense and a well-rounded offensive game, Leonard averaged 17.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks per game en route to winning the NBA Finals MVP Award.
Leonard had opened as a +1800 long shot to win the Finals MVP at Intertops, making him easily the most improbable winner in recent history. The table below displays the Finals MVP odds over the past seven years. (H/T SportsOddsHistory.com)
| Year | Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Kawhi Leonard | San Antonio Spurs | +1800 |
| 2013 | LeBron James | Miami Heat | -250 |
| 2012 | LeBron James | Miami Heat | +130 |
| 2011 | Dirk Nowitzki | Dallas Mavericks | +160 |
| 2010 | Kobe Bryant | Los Angeles Lakers | -182 |
| 2009 | Kobe Bryant | Los Angeles Lakers | -300 |
| 2008 | Paul Pierce | Boston Celtics | +400 |
After taking home the MVP Award this season, Stephen Curry (-200) is expected to add to this trophy collection by winning the Finals MVP.
NBA Finals MVP
Curry -200
James +225
Irving +1200
Green +1400
K Thompson +1600
Smith +8000
T Thompson +10000
Bogut, Barnes +15000— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) May 28, 2015
It should be noted that both Kyrie Irving (+1200) and Klay Thompson (+1600) are both nursing injuries entering this series. While Irving is still dealing with a knee injury, Thompson suffered a concussion in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals after taking knee to the head. Both players are currently listed as probable, and bettors can track the latest news on our free NBA injury page.
Other NBA Finals player props include:
Most Assists in #NBAFinals (via BetOnline)
LeBron James -110
Stephen Curry +220
Kyrie Irving +475
Draymond Green +475
Field +2000— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) May 29, 2015
Most Points in the #NBAFinals
Stephen Curry +100
LeBron James +125
Klay Thompson +1000
Kyrie Irving +1000
Field +2500— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) May 29, 2015
Most Rebounds in the #NBAFinals
T. Thompson +225
D. Green +275
L. James +300
A. Bogut +500
T. Mozgov +800
Field +1600— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) May 29, 2015
Most Blocks in the #NBAFinals
A. Bogut +275
T. Mozgov +275
T. Thompson +350
L. James +450
D. Green +500
Field +800— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) May 29, 2015
Most Steals in the #NBAFinals
S. Curry +250
L. James +325
D. Green +400
K. Irving +500
A. Iguodala +800
I. Shumpert +1000
Field +650— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) May 29, 2015
These numbers are always subject to change, so we recommend that bettors track the latest odds and betting trends on our free odds page.
Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.
David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.
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