2015 College Football: Week 11 Opening Line Report
Alabama at Mississippi State: Coming off their big 30-16 home win over LSU last week, Alabama opened -6.5 at BetOnline this week but quickly moved to -7. Sharper books like CRIS and Pinnacle then opened Alabama -7 while 5Dimes actually opened Alabama -7.5. Currently the entire market is sitting at Alabama -7, and 70% of early bets like the Crimson to cover. Despite the public hammering Bama, books have been hesitant to move above -7, knowing sharper bets will likely come in on Mississippi State +7.5.
Arkansas at LSU: LSU RB Leonard Fournette was stifled against a great Alabama defense last week and will have something to prove against Arkansas. LSU is currently -7.5 at Pinnacle but are at -8 at most other sportsbooks, showing there’s still public love on the Tigers. 61% of early bets are taking LSU so this game is not too lopsided at the moment, and the value likely lies on LSU at -7 or below. The lookahead line for this game over the summer was LSU -1.5, so oddsmakers were expecting Arkansas to be more competitive than they have been.
Oregon at Stanford: Sharper offshore books had a difference of opinion on this opening line, represented in the table below:
|Matchup||CRIS Open||Pinnacle Open||5Dimes Open|
|Oregon at Stanford||Stanford -8.5||Stanford -9||Stanford -9.5|
This is already the fourth time Oregon has been underdogs this season but they’ve covered the previous three, and six straight dating back to 2009. The market has settled at Stanford -9 right now and bets are roughly even at the moment. Stanford has had success recently against Oregon and wouldn’t be a surprise if this line reaches Stanford -10. Over the summer the lookahead line was a pick ’em, showing just how far Oregon has dropped off this season.
Oklahoma at Baylor: This is the game of the week and is already getting twice as many bets as any other game on the board. Early bets are all over Oklahoma as they’re receiving a whopping 75% of bets as road underdogs. This is heavily affecting the line, with the Sooners moving from +7 to +3 at BetOnline, and +5 to +3 at CRIS. Here’s a look at the betting line graph:
Even though Baylor failed to cover last week at Kansas State, it’s still surprising to see such overwhelming support against them, especially since Baylor has blown out Oklahoma the last two seasons. The lookahead line was Baylor -13 before the year so we’d expect more bets to come in on Baylor since the spread is down to -3.
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