2015 College Football: Week 10 Opening Line Report
LSU at Alabama: BetOnline and most sportsbooks opened Alabama -7 but have already dropped to -6. Over the summer the lookahead line at Golden Nugget was Bama -9 so this isn’t too far off. LSU RB Leonard Fournette has been even better than anyone could have predicted but this is a big statement week for the clear-cut Heisman favorite. So far the majority of bets are coming in on road dogs LSU but Alabama has gone a solid 16-12 ATS over the last 10 years when getting less than half of spread bets. This is a game where sharps may wait to grab Alabama as low as possible.
Florida State at Clemson: The lookahead line for this game was Clemson -2, and that was assuming Florida State would have a healthy Dalvin Cook and Everett Golson. With both of those key players questionable, no books have set a new line yet but we’d expect Clemson to open at least -3 even if they both do play. It’s too bad that we may have to wait days for this line to come out, as it should be one of the most bet games of the weekend. This game will essentially decide who gets to play in the ACC title game, and an undefeated Clemson still has their eyes set on a College Football Playoff berth.
**Monday afternoon update: Clemson opens -12 at both CRIS and BetOnline, much higher than anticipated. FSU hasn’t been a double-digit dog since 2009 (+25.5 at Florida).
Baylor at Kansas State: Bill Snyder’s Kansas State Wildcats have been a tough opponent for years but in recent weeks this team has looked overmatched, losing 4 straight games including blowouts to Oklahoma and Texas. CRIS opened Baylor -16 but moved to -17, and other sharp books like Pinnacle and 5Dimes have already moved Baylor over the key number to -17.5. Public bettors are still confident in the Bears, getting 62% of early bets, but this will be the first game without their star QB Seth Russell. Public betting could keep pushing the line up during the week but the value may be on the Wildcats at anything above +17.
TCU at Oklahoma State: Both TCU and Baylor have received most of the attention in the Big-12, but Oklahoma State is 8-0 and ranked #12 after avoiding upset to Texas Tech last week. TCU opened -5 for this one and are clearly still the better team, but the Cowboys can put up points with ease. Over the summer the lookahead line was TCU -11 so there’s nearly a touchdown difference since then. 70% of early bets are coming in on TCU but we’d also expect some sharper money to come in on TCU as well. Games that open on in-between lines like -5 usually move at least a point either way, closer to key numbers of -3 and -7.
Lines are always on the move and betting percentages from our contributing books are still coming in, so be sure to track the market at our Free Live Odds page.
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