Throughout the offseason we’ve posted the 2014-15 NBA MVP odds and win totals from the offshore sportsbook Bwin. Although the limits were very low and the juice was very high, these early prop bets give us some early insight from the oddsmakers.
Back in mid-August Bwin, who had been the only offshore sportsbook posting such a wide range of NBA betting options, posted prop bets related to the 2014-15 league leader in scoring, rebounding, assists and blocks. It took nearly two months for another prominent offshore sportsbook to post their own odds but, sure enough, Bovada has posted these prop bets as well — though not without some major discrepancies.
Still just 25 years old, Kevin Durant has already won four scoring titles (2010, 2011, 2012 and 2014) in his seven year NBA career. In fact, last season the rangy forward averaged a career-high 32.0 points per game — 4.6 ppg above his closest competitor (Carmelo Anthony) and his career average. Perhaps that explains why Durant was once listed as the overwhelming favorite to win the scoring title at -200. However, since then Durant suffered a fractured foot which is expected to sideline the MVP forward six-to-eight weeks.
The table below compares the current odds at Bwin and Bovada alongside each player’s scoring average from last season.
|Player||Team||Bovada (10/14)||Bwin (8/16)||2013-14 PPG|
|Kevin Durant||Oklahoma City Thunder||+150||-200||32.0|
|Carmelo Anthony||New York Knicks||+200||+190||27.4|
|LeBron James||Cleveland Cavaliers||+275||+200||27.1|
|James Harden||Houston Rockets||+650||+700||25.4|
|Russell Westbrook||Oklahoma City Thunder||+1200||+200||21.8|
|Stephen Curry||Golden State Warriors||+2000||+1600||24.0|
|Blake Griffin||Los Angeles Clippers||+2500||+3500||24.1|
|Kobe Bryant||Los Angeles Lakers||+2500||+300||13.8|
|Kevin Love||Cleveland Cavaliers*||+3500||+400||26.1|
|Derrick Rose||Chicago Bulls||+4000||+1000||15.9|
|LaMarcus Aldridge||Portland Trail Blazers||+4000||+3500||23.2|
|Anthony Davis||New Orleans Pelicans||+4000||+12500||20.8|
|DeMarcus Cousins||Sacramento Kings||+6000||+5000||22.7|
|Damian Lillard||Portland Trail Blazers||+7500||+3000||20.7|
|DeMar DeRozan||Toronto Raptors||+7500||+7500||22.7|
|Al Jefferson||Charlotte Hornets||+10000||+8000||21.8|
|Dwyane Wade||Miami Heat||+10000||+8000||19.0|
|Chris Bosh||Miami Heat||+10000||+8000||16.2|
|Deron Williams||Brooklyn Nets||N/A||+5000||14.3|
|John Wall||Washington Wizards||N/A||+15000||19.3|
|Kawhi Leonard||San Antonio Spurs||N/A||+5000||12.8|
|Goran Dragic||Phoenix Suns||N/A||+5000||20.3|
|Tony Parker||San Antonio Spurs||N/A||+5000||16.7|
|Kyrie Irving||Cleveland Cavaliers||N/A||+3500||20.8|
|Dwight Howard||Houston Rockets||N/A||+3500||18.3|
|Chris Paul||Los Angeles Clippers||N/A||+8000||19.1|
|Andrew Wiggins||Minnesota Timberwolves*||N/A||+3000||N/A|
|Jabari Parker||Milwaukee Bucks||N/A||+5000||N/A|
|Tim Duncan||San Antonio Spurs||N/A||+8000||15.1|
|Dirk Nowitzki||Dallas Mavericks||N/A||+5000||21.7|
It’s interesting to see two rookies listed on this list considering that 76ers guard Michael Carter-Williams led all rookies in scoring last season with just 16.7 ppg. In fact, no rookie has led the league in scoring since Elvin Hayes way back in the 1968-69 season.
As you’ll notice in this table, both #1 pick Andrew Wiggins (+3000) and #2 pick Jabari Parker (+5000) are listed as options. What’s particularly strange about this is that they were listed ahead of former number one overall selection Anthony Davis (+12500 ), who actually ranked 14th in scoring last season after averaging 20.8 ppg. When Bovada posted their odds this issue was rectified with Davis being listed at +4000 and both rookie left out of consideration entirely.
Immediately following the 2014 NBA Draft, two sportsbooks posted over/unders for Wiggins and Parker’s scoring output, and neither book is expecting elite production. Although Wiggins trade from Cleveland to Minnesota should lead to more opportunity, it’s tough to imagine a significant jump.
Will Andrew Wiggins average more than 17.5 points per game as a rookie? “No” is a -160 favorite | “Yes” is listed at +125 (via SIA)
— SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) June 26, 2014
Yesterday SIA listed the over/under for Andrew Wiggins rookie scoring at 17.5 points per game. Today Bovada lists his O/U at 14.5 ppg. — SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) June 27, 2014
The over/under for Jabari Parker’s rookie production has been set at 15.5 points and 7 rebounds per game. (via Bovada) — SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) June 27, 2014
While Anthony Davis seems like one interesting sleeper, Chicago’s Derrick Rose is another potentially undervalued player. LeBron James and Kevin Love both have better odds of leading the league in scoring than Rose, but there are only so many touches to go around in Cleveland. One has to imagine that Irving, Love and James will all see a slight reduction in scoring this season.
Meanwhile, all reports from the Team USA coaching staff are that Rose is fully healed and has returned to his MVP-form. Prior to his knee injury in 2011, Rose averaged 25.0 ppg which would have been good for sixth last season. While Bwin listed the athletic point guard’s odds at +1000, Rose is listed at +4000 at Bovada which one again underscores the importance of shopping for the best line.
Another intriguing option is Miami’s Dwyane Wade. With LeBron James back in Cleveland, Wade will once again be asked to should much of the scoring load. And while public sentiment following the NBA Finals seemed to be the Wade is over the hill, his numbers tell a much different story.
The 32-year old Wade may have tired down late in the postseason, but the 2013-14 season may have been the most efficient of D-Wade’s career. In 54 games, Wade averaged 19.0 points on a career-high 54.5% shooting in just 32.9 minute/game. In fact his average of 20.8 points per 36 minutes is not far off from Carmelo Anthony’s 25.5 points per 36. With James gone, Wade will be the focal point of the Heat offense and I would not be surprised to see his playing time and scoring raise considerably.
This would not be Wade’s first scoring title as the 6’4″ guard actually won the scoring crown when he averaged just over 30 ppg during the 2008-09 season. The table below displays the past eight scoring champs along with their pre-season odds to be the league’s leading scorer. (Odds via SportsOddsHistory.com)
|Year||Player||Odds||Points Per Game|
Who do you think will be next season’s scoring champ? Can anybody supplant Kevin Durant? Will Kobe Bryant return to form after missing most of the 2013-14 season? Make sure to leave any comments or questions in the section below.