2014-15 NBA Scoring Title Odds

2014-15 NBA Scoring Title Odds

Throughout the offseason we’ve posted the 2014-15 NBA MVP odds and win totals from the offshore sportsbook Bwin. Although the limits were very low and the juice was very high, these early prop bets give us some early insight from the oddsmakers.

Back in mid-August Bwin, who had been the only offshore sportsbook posting such a wide range of NBA betting options, posted prop bets related to the 2014-15 league leader in scoring, rebounding, assists and blocks. It took nearly two months for another prominent offshore sportsbook to post their own odds but, sure enough, Bovada has posted these prop bets as well — though not without some major discrepancies.

Still just 25 years old, Kevin Durant has already won four scoring titles (2010, 2011, 2012 and 2014) in his seven year NBA career. In fact, last season the rangy forward averaged a career-high 32.0 points per game — 4.6 ppg above his closest competitor (Carmelo Anthony) and his career average. Perhaps that explains why Durant was once listed as the overwhelming favorite to win the scoring title at -200. However, since then Durant suffered a fractured foot which is expected to sideline the MVP forward six-to-eight weeks.

The table below compares the current odds at Bwin and Bovada alongside each player’s scoring average from last season.

PlayerTeamBovada (10/14)Bwin (8/16)2013-14 PPG
Kevin DurantOklahoma City Thunder+150-20032.0
Carmelo AnthonyNew York Knicks+200+19027.4
LeBron JamesCleveland Cavaliers+275+20027.1
James HardenHouston Rockets+650+70025.4
Russell WestbrookOklahoma City Thunder+1200+20021.8
Stephen CurryGolden State Warriors+2000+160024.0
Blake GriffinLos Angeles Clippers+2500+350024.1
Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers+2500+30013.8
Kevin LoveCleveland Cavaliers*+3500+40026.1
Derrick RoseChicago Bulls+4000+100015.9
LaMarcus AldridgePortland Trail Blazers+4000+350023.2
Anthony DavisNew Orleans Pelicans+4000+1250020.8
DeMarcus CousinsSacramento Kings+6000+500022.7
Damian LillardPortland Trail Blazers+7500+300020.7
DeMar DeRozanToronto Raptors+7500+750022.7
Al JeffersonCharlotte Hornets+10000+800021.8
Dwyane WadeMiami Heat+10000+800019.0
Chris BoshMiami Heat+10000+800016.2
Deron WilliamsBrooklyn NetsN/A+500014.3
John WallWashington WizardsN/A+1500019.3
Kawhi LeonardSan Antonio SpursN/A+500012.8
Goran DragicPhoenix SunsN/A+500020.3
Tony ParkerSan Antonio SpursN/A+500016.7
Kyrie IrvingCleveland CavaliersN/A+350020.8
Dwight HowardHouston RocketsN/A+350018.3
Chris PaulLos Angeles ClippersN/A+800019.1
Andrew WigginsMinnesota Timberwolves*N/A+3000N/A
Jabari ParkerMilwaukee BucksN/A+5000N/A
Tim DuncanSan Antonio SpursN/A+800015.1
Dirk NowitzkiDallas MavericksN/A+500021.7

It’s interesting to see two rookies listed on this list considering that 76ers guard Michael Carter-Williams led all rookies in scoring last season with just 16.7 ppg. In fact, no rookie has led the league in scoring since Elvin Hayes way back in the 1968-69 season.

As you’ll notice in this table, both #1 pick Andrew Wiggins (+3000) and #2 pick Jabari Parker (+5000) are listed as options. What’s particularly strange about this is that they were listed ahead of former number one overall selection Anthony Davis (+12500 ), who actually ranked 14th in scoring last season after averaging 20.8 ppg. When Bovada posted their odds this issue was rectified with Davis being listed at +4000 and both rookie left out of consideration entirely.

Immediately following the 2014 NBA Draft, two sportsbooks posted over/unders for Wiggins and Parker’s scoring output, and neither book is expecting elite production. Although Wiggins trade from Cleveland to Minnesota should lead to more opportunity, it’s tough to imagine a significant jump.

While Anthony Davis seems like one interesting sleeper, Chicago’s Derrick Rose is another potentially undervalued player. LeBron James and Kevin Love both have better odds of leading the league in scoring than Rose, but there are only so many touches to go around in Cleveland. One has to imagine that Irving, Love and James will all see a slight reduction in scoring this season.

Meanwhile, all reports from the Team USA coaching staff are that Rose is fully healed and has returned to his MVP-form. Prior to his knee injury in 2011, Rose averaged 25.0 ppg which would have been good for sixth last season. While Bwin listed the athletic point guard’s odds at +1000, Rose is listed at +4000 at Bovada which one again underscores the importance of shopping for the best line.

Another intriguing option is Miami’s Dwyane Wade. With LeBron James back in Cleveland, Wade will once again be asked to should much of the scoring load. And while public sentiment following the NBA Finals seemed to be the Wade is over the hill, his numbers tell a much different story.

The 32-year old Wade may have tired down late in the postseason, but the 2013-14 season may have been the most efficient of D-Wade’s career. In 54 games, Wade averaged 19.0 points on a career-high 54.5% shooting in just 32.9 minute/game. In fact his average of 20.8 points per 36 minutes is not far off from Carmelo Anthony’s 25.5 points per 36. With James gone, Wade will be the focal point of the Heat offense and I would not be surprised to see his playing time and scoring raise considerably.

This would not be Wade’s first scoring title as the 6’4″ guard actually won the scoring crown when he averaged just over 30 ppg during the 2008-09 season. The table below displays the past eight scoring champs along with their pre-season odds to be the league’s leading scorer. (Odds via SportsOddsHistory.com)

YearPlayerOddsPoints Per Game
2013-14Kevin Durant+13532.0
2012-13Carmelo Anthony+70028.7
2011-12Kevin Durant+10028.0
2010-11Kevin Durant-20027.7
2009-10Kevin Durant+40030.1
2008-09Dwyane Wade+30030.2
2007-08LeBron James+80030.0
2006-07Kobe Bryant+20031.6

Who do you think will be next season’s scoring champ? Can anybody supplant Kevin Durant? Will Kobe Bryant return to form after missing most of the 2013-14 season? Make sure to leave any comments or questions in the section below.

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David Solar

David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.

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